It is right time now to make the pristine, scenic &
mighty Mekong river a strategic piece in the Indo-Pacific puzzle. This is of
immense importance to India. But, what does India have to lose, in a river that
is hundreds of miles away from nearest border outpost? A lot. In fact, we’ve
lost a lot already. Time, effort, money and more importantly – lives.
Core issue
Mekong river that has its origins in Tibet. Waters pass
through 5 other nations (Myanmar, Lao PDR, Thailand, Cambodia & Vietnam).
The terrain it passes through ranges from cold plateau of Tibet to dense
jungles to fertile agricultural lands of Mekong Delta. While playing a crucial
role environment, economy & therefore making a direct & indirect impact
on lives of, at the very least, 6-7 Crore people.
Where does China come in? China plans to use Mekong river as
a trade route for the now infamous signature initiative of General Secretary Xi
Jinping: Belt & Road Initiative. Chinese Companies started blasting
sections of the river called Pi Long rapids to ‘make it fit’ for cargo ships to
transit to & from China through the river.
Strategic
importance
Being part of the Indo-Pacific, India has a significant stake in this region.
India’s extended neighborhood. In the year 2000, India and five other partner
nations (Myanmar, Thailand, Lao PDR, Cambodia & Vietnam) agreed to form
Mekong Ganga Cooperation. This is nothing but, India’s outreach towards East
Asia. The “Look East Policy” as Government of India calls it. Under this, a lot
of development projects were to be partnered. Including Trans-Asian Highway
& Trans-Asian Railway projects. These connectivity projects are far away
from debt trap models and are done on partnership basis – free and transparent.
No hidden games as that of Belt & Road Initiative. Also, this started much
before General Secretary.
It might be slow, but steady. We built only on a “need” basis. No forceful
imposing of cosmetic / showcase projects at exorbitant amounts on smaller
neighbors. While there is a significant progress in the connectivity projects,
there is much to catch up to make deeper economic impact. Many of these small
& poor countries are under tighter Chinese influence – economically &
strategically. For China, what seemed fine until 2014, suddenly got off rails.
One who has influence over Mekong River, has the sphere of influence over a
major chunk of Indo-Pacific theater land mass. The strategic importance is no
less than Panama Canal or Suez Canal.
When it comes to Mekong River, two key players are involved. Myanmar – the first
nation downstream after Mekong river enters from Yunnan Province of China. Vietnam,
which has the Mekong Delta region – the last point before the river flows into
the historic Champa Sea – which is part of the Indian cultural sphere, though
independent nations. In fact, Mekong holds the unique distinction of flowing
through 6 Nations today, which were entirely under Indian cultural sphere of
influence. Including Yunnan.
Myanmar
Why Myanmar? Myanmar lies between Andaman Sea / Bay of Bengal and
China’s Yunnan province. The shortest land route for cargo & oil from Gulf
is via Sittwe – Muse – Kunming. This circumvents the Malacca Straits and Champa
Sea issues.
The strategic depth at which China operates to keep a hold on the nations is
mindboggling & quite elaborate. On Myanmar, while India itself is helping
with cultural, security & political capital. On monetary capital, India has
roped in Japan for investments to counter Chinese investments and offer an
alternative. The Sino-Japanese rivalry in Myanmar projects is quite well
documented.
Just after Myanmar visit of November 2014, ball started rolling faster. After
that visit by Myanmar’s State Counsellor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to Delhi and
two-day log meeting with PM Modi, a lot of perception and alignments between
two neighbors seem to have changed.
A vision was spelled out by Madam Suu Kyi in her joint press statement during
her 2016 Delhi visit. Subsequently, the political & military relations
marched forward. In November 2019, two key events happened. First, Myanmar came
under heavy criticism & extreme pressure over Rohingya issue. Myanmar was
taken to International Criminal Court by Gambia. Not Saudi Arabia or Bangladesh
or Indonesia. But, Gambia. Ironically, this is just after a year of Gambia
receiving financial assistance from PRC in return for breaking ties with
Taiwan.
Second event. Five people were kidnapped by Arakan Army. They were
there relating to an India funded construction project in restive Rakhine
province. One Indian National (construction worker) died while in AA’s custody.
Four others who were also abducted were released safely. While ICC order came
in January 2020.
Investigations that followed on a wider issue of Chinese funding
& arming insurgents. China was caught red handed by Myanmar. China did sabotage
India funded projects in Myanmar. Especially, Trans-Asian Highway / Railway
link related projects. And more specifically, the Kaladan Multi-modal
Transit Project which is key to connecting India’s North Eastern
provinces. Not just that. China did mischief against those who were opposing citing
environmental & financial issues that exists in China funded China Myanmar
Economic Corridor (CMEC) projects in Myanmar.
Pic Source: Wiki Commons
For those who don’t know, Arakan Army is fully funded & armed
by China’s PLA directly. Per media reports Ministry of State Security (MSS)
supports AA too. On the other hand, Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) is
funded by China indirectly through Pakistan’s ISI, per news reports. AA committed
some grave human rights violations on Rohingyas. Just like their adversary ARSA
did on Hindus and Buddhists. China funds both. ARSA got assistance from
Pakistan is a different story. Overall, China supports a lot of terrorist
groups in this region. PLA & MSS even funds insurgent groups in India’s
North East – which operate training camps in Myanmar’s jungles. Indian Army
& Myanmar’s Tatmadaw did a joint strike on these terror camps many times in
the past few years. Some of India’s most wanted terrorists are tracked to
Yunnan Province of China.
By creating an image of Myanmar as a politically unstable State that is also
infested with internal trouble, China made Myanmar look unattractive for
foreign investments. Thus, keeping Myanmar under its claws of debt trap. This
is double wedged sword. Fact is, China has waged a political, economic &
even a sub-conventional proxy war against Myanmar for showing slightest signs
of aligning with India – for all peaceful purposes. Myanmar, by now, has
understood the game and moved on completely away from Chinese influence. The little
influence that we see is also bound to vanish in times to come. The recent
meeting between Myanmar’s Military Chief & Indian Defense Minister was the
final nail in the coffin. India upped its game in Myanmar and there will be no
looking back.
Vietnam
Mekong protection is key to sustaining food basket of South East
Asia. Be it freshwater fishing, agriculture or poultry. The bigger problem here
is that the fear of this damage being irreversible. Making it impossible for
future rejuvenation of this natural habitat of precious flora & fauna.
Development always needs to be sustainable. More importantly, with little to no
damage to habitat / ecosystem. Here, we are talking of destroying an entire
natural habitat in the middle of a rainforest, for unadulterated greed.
Few months ago, water levels reached a historic low of 1.5meters. Then, worst
drought in a century this year. Then, there have been reports of this being the
reason for saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta region. Vietnam’s food
basket. This is nothing short of environmental emergency that Vietnam was
battling along with Pandemic. Currently, due to heavy rains in China, the water
levels have risen. And the basin is flooded. This is majorly due to
irresponsible / unscientific restricting of the flow of Mekong river water. The
issue is well documented in local media. This is the level of environmental
impact. Though Vietnam took diplomatic steps to raise this issue with China, it
is of little help.
Vietnam’s economic growth trajectory over the past few years has
been upwards and quite robust. They’ve pulled out large chunk of their people
out of poverty. The Mekong delta region of the country has played a crucial
role in this. This region is key to the country’s food security in future too.
Such projects might have a deep economic & social impact on the people too.
Cambodia, Lao PDR & Thailand
Cambodia, Lao PDR & Thailand face political & sovereignty
issues that are caused due to environmental impact on its people. The issues
are very similar to what Vietnam faces. A wave of protests over China’s
irresponsible Mekong river projects. Some violent attacks on Chinese workers
too. Per one report of Reuters, “Chinese engineers on the Mekong said they were
worried that Thai protesters would board the rickety cargo ship where they
slept, prompting them to moor it on the Laotian side of the Mekong each night.”
Over past few years, “Mekong River is Not for Sale” has become more than a
slogan for the locals. This started rumblings at political & geo-political level as
Nations were scrambling themselves while unable to speak out against a mighty
China. Vietnam is not alone. Story is similar in Thailand and Lao PDR too. The
protests had a political bearing on Lao PDR & Thai Governments at various
levels. Sovereignty issue.
Pic Source: Flickr
China’s overambitious problem
As it is oft repeated on any issue where China is party to, chances are that,
the issue most likely originated in China. This one, has its roots in China
after PRC setting itself an ambition to control the region’s waters. It might
sound like an allegation, but this is their act elsewhere too. More precisely,
this is one of the reasons for PRC’s invasion of Tibet. For example: Mekong
River Commission was formed – officially in 1995. The Commission has 4 members
out of 6 States through which the river flows, as members. The other two
exclusions being Myanmar & Tibet / China.
In 2012, a rival organization was proposed by someone as big
as China’s Premier Li Keqiang. The Lancang – Mekong Cooperation. Now that we
know the clout China had those days, it must have had little difficulty in
getting all 5 States into this organization. Who’d have thought of meeting eye
to eye with China those days. Leave alone these small nations saying a “No” for
an answer. Especially, when this new LMC was spearheaded by no less than
China’s Premier. Within few years, development – China style – started reaching
those areas.
If you haven’t noticed, China copied even the name of Mekong Ganga Cooperation – as PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee suggested in 2000. As Premier Li Keqiang suggested in 2012, it is Lancang – Mekong Cooperation. Humility puts one’s interests behind. Hence, India put Ganga AFTER Mekong. Culture matters. Only money, no care for environment, sovereignty or livelihood was given. Problems started.
Course
of action
If
China’s clout must be curtailed in the region, China’s access to region’s
shores must be restricted. Be it Bay of Bengal or Champa Sea. The only other
option is through Mekong basin. It is here, that World’s democracies should
partner with these small nations that are hit by China’s wolf-warrior
diplomacy. Help them create their own wealth using the Mekong river and keep
them independent from China.
The way China tricked these small nations; highly doubt they would ever trust
China’s intentions ever again. China too knows this. Hence, China used “mischief”
as strategy. Beat Myanmar down & tame Vietnam. Unfortunately for China,
both strategies failed. With Indo-Pacific region heating up, it won’t be wrong
to see many democratic political changes which would help Mekong river flow
peacefully. With Vietnam & Myanmar out of China’s sphere of influence, this
could happen faster than expected.
India can pace up the initiatives of Mekong Ganga Cooperation – where it was
last left and speedup the progress.
First, people to people contact should be made simple & affordable.
Second, ease of doing business should be the key driving factor. If Mekong
Delta flourishes, India’s North East flourishes too. Lastly, the Mekong Ganga
Cooperation project, had a dream to run a passenger train from Delhi / Kolkata
to Hanoi. Hopefully, we see it in our lifetime.
A good regional cooperation is the need of the hour. Like ASEAN, there should
be an Indo-Pacific grouping which could voice collectively concerns regarding
China’s unsustainable ideas. This is more than enough to wealth creation &
people movement. This should be done at the earliest before we lose habitat for
good. If we don’t stop this, am fully sure nature would reclaim itself.
Note:
This piece was first published on The Daily Guardian on 30th July 2020. Web version can be accessed here. Epaper of print version can be accessed on Page 7 of the link here.