Kinetic reaction to China's CCP & PLA

I had written this about Battles of China. In continuation to that, a three factor piece here.

Coming to terms with new military realities

China made an unnecessary & land grab attempt in Galwan valley & few other areas along Line of Actual Control. Probably, China didn't get it. The Galwan valley is under illegal occupation by China since 1962.

Now that it has committed, a cardinal sin, it is making more and more mistakes in defending that cardinal sin. Typical defensive behavior at play. Anyways, I am not going into details of it as it is now well known & well covered in critical / vibrant Indian media. Let us see the motives and how this will unravel going forward.

China, has unfortunately did a mistake, while committing a sin. It has blood of Indian soldiers, no less than a Commanding Officer, who is no less than a father of the fighting military unit. You touch him, you won't know what will hit you. Here, it has killed a Commanding Officer. The rank & file are obviously agitated. Revenge will be served. This is not going unpunished. PLA now getting to know the gravity, is amassing troops in the narrow Galwan Valley. Anyone who wore uniform of a security guard, wouldn't do that. While we all know the capabilities of PLA, but this is a new low. 

I'd call it mindless deployment of troops. I'd refer to the fantastic representation of map shared by Dr Shiv (@bennedose) on Twitter.

For example, Dr Shiv's comments on the logistics route below. The comments are self-explanatory.

With such a way out, we are looking at PLA troops being slaughtered by our combat units. Even a slightest think about what would happen when regular battle hardened infantry troops are unleashed, would be very bad for PLA. Not even talking of Special Forces like Ghataks here.

With IAF in full force at Leh & nearby, we're looking at possible PoW situation for thousands of PLA at the hands of Indian Armed Forces. Better not do drama over this occupation. Basically, they got their timing miserably wrong & peaked too early. 

Chinese Communist Party & all elements of its armed faction, People's Liberation Army should also be told, there is no other option but to just accept China made a mistake & PLA should leave the occupied land to pre-1959 borders. Indian land that PLA should vacate in Ladakh include: Khurnak Fort - Lanak La - South of ridge line of Kunlun Range - Haji Langar - Qara Tagh Pass - Daulat Beg Oldie - Shashgam Valley. Should agree to stop using CPEC, through our sovereign land. All monies that go into Pakistan should stop with immediate effect - including for Business. No money should go without our approval. This is the only way CCP could save its rule over what is currently known as a political entity called People's Republic of China. A no-nonsense, foolproof & unconditional agreement should be signed to this effect and make it a legal document. Which should have a clause with Chinese accepting the mistake & expressing "sorry" for occupation for so long.

Status of Nepal & Pakistan

What would happen to two key states that are currently volatile - Nepal & Pakistan. Nepal is neat & clean. Anything they try to act funny beyond a point, they'll end up losing half their country. If this sounds like a threat, so be it. India is well within its rights to stop another "Tibet" happening next door - again by China. India should use all instruments at its disposal to stop that. I repeat, whatever. China has no business to be in Nepal with a motive to counter India. But then, India don't need to do anything. Nepal is a democracy & its people have a Roti-Beti relationship with India. It is more likely that Nepal would go for election and government change route. Am summarily ignoring PM Oli's artificial map issue. Seems this foolishness is inspired by China. No need to discuss foolishness. India's red line with regards to Nepal is, destroying the thousands of years of spiritual & cultural relationship, for a few quick bucks & that too for some unsustainable Maoist ideology. Having traveled in Nepal, can say, it is as good as rural India. Beautiful & potential untapped. I'd rate the current dispute as one between various Indian States. Not more than that. At the end of day, being from same culture, usually brothers would be together & would talk it out. If need be, course-corrected too. India sees no harm in it. But, do not cross the red line.

On Pakistan, I think, they are tensed. This is where it gets interesting. When news about what is happening at Galwan Valley slowly reached Indian Media, within few hours, there was flurry of activities in Rawalpindi. This includes PM Imran Khan's visit to Office of DG ISI. Surreal event. Another equally important even is the visit by Joint Chiefs of Staffs to the same office. Lastly the recent change in envoys to a few countries than what it was supposed to be. (I leave it to your research on this.) Basically, Pakistan establishment is kinda terrified.

Pakistan, never thought India would look at China, eye-to-eye. Their entire game was based at China is all-weather partner of Pakistan and that if you touch Pakistan, China would come its rescue. Then, the nuclear powers and all that. Now, Galwan has changed all that. Pakistan and its Generals wouldn't have in their wildest of wild dreams have thought that India would touch PLA soldiers. Here, PLA overstepped. Also, when news about CO was killed was out, top brass visited Office of DG ISI, the very next day. This is where pages of history turned. At this junction, China was still learning about the seriousness of the sin its survivors on what "Ghatak" platoons did to their troops at the border. Also from Pakistan which is helping gauge Indian response, which it would be doing for saving its own control of Pakistan Occupied Jammu & Kashmir & Pakistan Occupied Ladakh. Afterall, the partners in crime go together. It'd be useful to learn about Indian Army's PoW experience from only country which availed it.

Also, Pakistan - having worked with China closely, they know how skeletal PLA is, from within. They know the weaknesses more than anyone. This is the reason, I can say, Pakistan is first one to recognize that China would fall the moment India looks at it. Now, India is not just looking at it. But, have locked and waiting to fire. After showing them trial piece, through "Ghataks" (Did the PLA tell Pindi about "Ghatak"signature lethal fist stokes?)

If you ask me, Pakistan would have already begun working on a strategy to deal with a "post-China" situation. Give it to ISI, Pakistan Army does fire bullets and don't run away (like PLA) easily at the first sound of gun shot. (They run only when Khukris are out!) By now, if my guess is right, the way things are going I won't be surprised that Pakistan tries to help China - for a fee, as usual!

It is my prediction, that if war breaks out between India & China, Pakistan would sit out. For two reasons: First, they won't dare to. Secondly, even if they did, no money & don't want to engage India when it is punching above weight. Pakistan stands no chance. But is India interested to fight with Pakistan? As of today, I don't think, there is a need to do that. Looking at their economy & the upcoming FATF sanctions, they'll fall apart as a mini-USSR in the months to come. India can save ammunition, effort, time & money on this. Pakistan will unravel itself. One less problem to deal with.

"The Post" scenario

This brings us to the post-China scenario. If a troubled PLA is sent back even by a few kilometers, it would have far reaching consequences. By miles. First and most immediate one is, their militias get hit back by various stakeholders of South China Sea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, Vietnam. One by one, everyone will up their game against China. Even in far away countries of Africa. China would be stretched it its limits. Won't be surprised if even North Korea hits at China at some point. PRC would reach such levels. Soon. I have NO DOUBTS about it. 

This would have effect on the power corridors in Beijing as well. Pressure is increasing & squarely. Dosage increasing by every passing day / week. Probably the reason why they went into a lockdown, post-Galvan, to deter people from entering Beijing, if in worst case PLA loses territory & doesn't want to repeat another Tiannanmen by July 4th (exactly a month later & US Independence Day.)

With the slightest sign of weakening China, EU won WTO case on anti-dumping duties. India on its part, cancelled a 471 Crore project with Indian Railways awarded to a Chinese company. Though clarified that this is not linked to the brutality of PLA at Galwan valley. News abuzz that India is also planning to scrap several such projects. Coupled with a growing resentment among people to stop buying Chinese goods, since the start of China Virus issue in India. This means a lot. A LOT. This is straight hit on Chinese wallets. Their money power would erode in a matter of few weeks or months, if the forex reserves don't improve. CCP can't sustain long in Zhongnanhai.

If CCP wins, Xi Jinping administration is in its last phase. He & his loyalists should start planning their "post" scenario. He has no shortage of enemies within his Party. They'll unseat him themselves. Already, the National Congress is postponed. The successor to Xi Jinping is also not announced yet - which they do 2 years in advance. If Xi Jinping is thinking of staying lifetime, that ain't happening either. It is quite tough. Either he would meet a bad end or would be overthrown or worse, hard labor awaits him.

If CCP doesn't save itself from resentment of people, we are looking at a USSR type disintegration of the political entity which we now know as People's Republic of China. (You may read my earlier blogs to know why I am saying this.) Some of the issues that China has, are unsustainable without a historic destruction of "new evil" in the planet - The CCP & The PLA. Rest everything could be restructured and peace can prevail.

For now, no other way to solve world's problems than to start with mother of all problems, CCP. The map NEED to be changed. If not today, within next 5-7yrs. All occupied lands by the party, needs to be liberated.

Start with India reclaiming all occupied lands & then, Tibet. Free Tibet.

Before I go, for more such organic & original content on China, I suggest the following reads:

i) Faultlines of China

ii) Battles of China

iii) One Debt, One Road - The Silk Road to Debt Trap

iv) Galwan - I

v) Galwan - II

vi) India - China Standoff

Korean conundrum of China

(Pic courtesy: Nikkei Asian Review)

Was hunting for some good documentaries. Came across this ABC News documentary. I'd highly recommend if you are a China watcher.

First few interesting points from the documentary. A broad outline.

1. Chinese wanted to develop a lot of Korean - Chinese border areas along with Kim Jong Un's uncle Jang Song - Thaek.

2. The $350Mn bridge in Dandong (Liaoning) which lands on a farm across Yalu River in North Korea. Google Map link here.

3. This bridge construction has come to a grinding halt, after Kim Jong Un executed his uncle. Probably for close ties with China without informing Kim Jong Un.

4. There are bridges that KJU built for Generals to escape, in case war breaks out in North Korea. And Chinese are nervous about that if war breaks out, and these fellows escape, US & South Korean tanks would be there in no time.

5. North Koreans treat Manchurian region of China as theirs. South Koreans want Korea to be united.

6. North Koreans think, what is currently with China (Manchuria a.k.a Third Korea) was theirs once. And, whatever China is giving to support North Korea, is actually something that China owes them for snatching their land. Including part of Mount Paektu. (You could read about these in my previous post here.)

Now, my opinions.

From China's point of view, it doesn't seem to have much friends. Those that are currently also, are in a love-hate relationship. This is not for all-weather friendships that one can depend on at times of war. If a troubled time-warped country like North Korea also doesn't stand by China, something is seriously wrong with the China's leadership. 

Interesting facet of this relationship is, looking back in time, how Thaek's execution set ball rolling for Korea to ring up Donald Trump's number to rattle Chinese. Xi seem to be having a very hot potato on his hand. You got to keep funding Kim Jong Un for his nuclear ambitions. Or, he'll side with Donald Trump & tanks would come rolling on the other side of Yalu River or Tumen River.

Looking back, it also makes sense why China was supportive of sanctions & de-nuclearization of North Korea. It is not in China's interest to have one more nuclear neighbor (after India & Russia. US is also based out of Japan & Taiwan.)

Last week, Kim Jong Un disappeared for a few days. Not many thought he'd even be alive. China panicked & even sent a team. Many theories floated around. Ultimately, it was supposedly to check if China is still interested in protecting him. And now it seems, per this report, Kim Jong Un was apparently faking it.

It is China which alienated Kim Jong Un. The North Koreans actually seems to have shown China what they could do, if not supported by China. Hence, ended up pitting China against US. More could be read here.

Things you can make from this:

a. It is a very complicated geography coupled with more complex history. Hence, it is usually radical out of box solutions that work.

b. Such solutions need strong leaders in both countries to accept the solution as it is.

c. Currently, such a leader is not in power in China, contrary to popular perception, Xi is actually weak when seen inside party politics.

d. If Xi is weak, who else? Well, that is something only time could answer. As of this minute, nobody knows when such leaders would come to the fore.

e. Forget global ambitions. China should get atleast a few all-weather friends. They seem to be acting selfish for a very long time & it is going to affect them sooner or later.

Remember one thing. Entire border of North Korea & China is divided by two rivers. Yalu & Tumen, which source from same source. A volcano. Ironically, also the water body is called Heaven Lake. Seems, jinxed right at the source.

I'd leave it at that, for your conclusion.