Battles of China

Came across this Reuters piece. Few unstructured thoughts on this.

If what is written is even 10% possible & China is foolish enough to end up in a conflict, it would end up having a Hiroshima & Nagasaki. If at all anything to happen, it would be around November - closer or worse after elections. If Trump gets re-elected, China would be made to crawl. Remember all the glory would go down. Their best chance for China is to stop war before it happens.

Two parts to my comparison to the WW2 event.

Part - I: On US. 

1. Pearl harbor has happened. We are in the "aftermath" preparation stage, after the Wuhan Corona Virus damage inflicted on humanity.

2. US should protect Taiwan at all costs. 3. Action would be closer to November. Re-election would be on China based. Democrats would foolishly support China and end up being dusted. Only saving grace is, US has a two party system & hence, Democrats would stay anyway. With or without the radical socialist elements. But, mark this. Republicans are here to stay for a very long time. Atleast next 4yrs. 2024, might see a lady President. Tulsi might galvanize support by then as a moderate voice for Democrats. Or worse, she might switch to Republican Party. Just like Trump did.

3. A Republican government or even a moderate Democrat Government would only make things worse.

4. China for now should control its tendencies to intervene in US Presidential Elections. It'll spell doom, forever for both their allies in US and for themselves.

Part - II: On China. 

1. China is all set to face immediate problems on some of their key weak points.

• Workers issues.
• Mental health of population which is already looking for spiritual safety-valve.
• Financial health of Nations.
• Tensions with entire world.
•  Leading to apartheid.
•  Intra-party battle.

2. These would result in two ways:

• Contrary to popular wish, IF Xi wins the intra-party battle & comes back with a change of heart. Ultimately leading to democratic China. (HIGHLY unlikely!)
• Get screwed by the world à People will revolt à Democratic China à End of whatever is left out of communism. (Like USSR.)

3. Come what may, all these would actually have a spillover of sorts, outside PRC. Maybe: Manchuria & North Korea would prefer to join South Korea to form "United Korea", Inner-Mongolia may join Mongolia. Xinjiang & Tibet might be Independent. Hainan, Guangdong, Guangxi & Yunnan might join Vietnam. Cambodia, which might see Hun Many take lead & do some course correction. Good luck to Laos. Philippines too might gain territory.

4. The way China is behaving, through its diplomats world over indulging in nothing but thuggery & rowdyism, it would only make the job of rest of the world sooner or later shrink China to what it was pre -1950. It has now reached a critical mass, where it is very tough job to stop map of China from being re-drawn.

5. Thanks to China's thuggery & breach of credibility of International bodies, we may see some major changes to the following organizations: United Nations, World Health Organization, UNICEF, WTO, ILO & UNESCO.

Finally, I leave you with this. Matt Pottinger spoke, in Mandarin, to reach out to people of China directly. (You can read it here.) He makes few pointed observations & comments. I leave it at that.

Conclusion: In the coming weeks & months, world is going to come harder on China & the CCP. Can't see anyone in current polity of China, who can stop it. The world as we knew it, the sand as we saw below our feet, has changed & drifted. We're officially, in uncharted territory.

Update: New York Times has written in detail about WTO. Do read: The W.T.O. Should Be Abolished.

India, chooses its battles wisely in changing times

Pic Source: economictimes.indiatimes.com

India is changing. Ok, it is not a mere rhetoric. At the outset, this is not something you'd see daily for it to be thought of / realize. Promise, won't bore you with numbers & theorems. So, read fully before judging.

Peaceful international climate is a prized art. Can be made possible with just one master sculptor. India had that for thousands of years. Now, slowly we're claiming it back. Some thoughts on how things are moving in unseen wheels of change. Like wise, the battles that India has started too, is not about Military might (though it has one!) True to its ethos, India will use Military as only the last option.

Halal: Some weeks back, there was some issue with a food delivery company. It was organic. People took it up. But, during course of it, it was made clear that how it is not religion neutral at all. Halal, for example, is said to be employing staff belonging to one particular community. And now, McDonalds has joined the controversy in India. Saying, they only serve Halal. Now, people in India are now asking, why should we be forced to consume which we don't want to & why Jhatka is not available? Righly so.

Slowly & steadily eroding the practice of Jhatka meat (or any non-Halal meat processing) - which means, slowly & steadily one community is holding sway on the multi billion dollar meat industry. Now, think. This is not just in India. Halal is almost prevalent everywhere across the world. See the point?

Unknowingly, we've started to accommodate what a minuscule minority has imposed on us for their dominance. Now, the majority is just asking politically incorrect & logical questions. Can you imagine what will happen if the halal meat industry is hit big time, world over? Will discuss at the end about it.

RuPay: The push & pull of global economy always is from the nation which controls maximum money. Of others as well than just of its own especially. Right now, Master Card & Visa have been unquestionably dominant over decades on payment gateways. THAT China's Union Pay tried to break. Without much success, Union Pay did make a dent. The ultimate competition came from Digital payments from India with the launch of BHIM by NPCIL. Ever thought about paying in foreign countries using an entirely Indian product like RuPay Cards and BHIM? That's what has happened. What this means is that anyone can get it even outside India. Pay using BHIM / RuPay cards. UPI in major financial markets of Asia (Singapore, UAE) & oil market of Bahrain, Tourist destinations of Bhutan & Maldives (rings a Chinese gong?) This is just a start. India has plans to extend this to other markets. With Hong Kong facing trouble, money expected to move to Singapore, Seoul, Tokyo & Mumbai, this move is critical and timely.

I leave it to your research on the amount of money across the region will enter our payments gateway in Rupee and in other currencies, which will strengthen Rupee and India at a macro level.

Whoever thought about this approach to getting leverage / say in global economy. Hats off!

GCC: From being recipient awarded highest Civilian awards of Palestine, Afghanistan, Saudi, UAE & Bahrain. To the trust of a friend to getting ports for Navy in Oman to building a port in Iran to rescuing people in Yemen. Last but not the least, getting the warmth of the direct link of Islam - King Abdullah of Jordan. India has friends made quite good friends across the region. Why & how did this happen? Energy security in exchange for food security. You think, in normal circumstances it was even possible for us to get heard? We're not a member of the grouping even today, a country with largest number of Muslims.

Gulf countries have realized that radical Islam is real danger to their survival & they can't let it grow beyond a point even if it benefited them in the past. Let this thought gain more weight and let more people welcome it.

Renewables: Gulf nations are not only securing their oil for future use. But also investing heavily in renewable. The global push & pull for energy requirements will actually slowdown as many nations are expected to follow renewable route to energy self-reliance. Of course, all in the umberalla reason of saving Planet Earth & environment. You get it, right? :-)

With India moving towards either a fully electric or a hybrid ICE vehicle regime by 2025, it is surely going to help change a lot in current paradigm. Of course, it will have its own niggles, but that's okay for a long term betterment.

India's solar alliance, remember? It has nations from as far as Pacific island of Fiji to Solomon Islands to Bolivia in South America to Sri Lanka to Uganda, Gambia in Africa. Just to mention the reach. It is spread across the globe. Big & small. Do the math if 77 Countries of the world with France leading the initiative in EU. Japan helping with funding & technology. Ever imagined how this will dent the thriving war industry which is after energy rich nations & territories?

Terrorism: Next theater of terrorism & war on terror is not Arabian peninsula or Asia. It will be Europe. UAE in Persian Gulf is turning to sustainable terms of nation building & eradicating the evil of terrorism. Even Saudi's Crown Prince is talking about women's empowerment, eradicating radical elements from the region and religion. Afghanistan is already blaming Pakistan on the issues of terrorism. A destabilized Pakistan will only create another IS in the region. Which is not good for ANY of the stake holders - for at least 2000kms radius! Russia & China are doing their own way. While we in the immediate neighborhood need to be sure that we don't end up bearing the brunt.

Hence all the above steps are necessary. How?

A radical doesn't become radical on his own. The radical has support of political islam. Political Islam is the one which opposes anything opposed to religion of Islam. Meaning, they set the rules.

Ask the following questions:

Who imposed halal on non-halal markets?

How was hawala transactions done?

How much oil money flow into India for nefarious activities, without any data / metrics / measure / anyone monitoring it?

Now, that game has changed. Now what will a radical do when funds dry up? As of today, a radical is mostly from unorganized sector without job security & is working for meager wages with more than two kids. Living in poor quality life in ghettos. The entire economy of him & his family is outside the system. With this pace of digital payments, the move from cash less (also an option) to less cash (only as an option) will transpire swift expected. This also means, more people into the system / mainstay economy. No parallel economy. This will demolish the radicalist's economy. This is why there was a lot of noise during demonetization in India.

Discount the religion factor out. Just imagine the potential of a parallel economy that is possible by selling meat alone in a country as big as India through halal in almost every store (as there is no other choice!) with almost complete monopoly. This is where the hit has happened.

Do you notice a faster degradation of Pakistan Economy post-Demonetization? I am not saying it is due to DeMo. But, can it be a coincidence? Is Pakistan somewhere burning itself out to bring down India? Is it fighting a losing battle? Come what may, Pakistan won't exist beyond a point. It is already existing beyond its expiry date. With GCC moving closer to India than Pakistan & FATF threat looming, game is coming to a close for them.

More payments through our payment gateway, with our Income Tax Department & Government agencies closely watching the funding from abroad, it is gold mine of data & threats would be more swiftly acted upon. There is no other way out.

With concerted moves, India, chooses its battles wisely in changing times. Didn't fight all the battle thrown at it. It chose the battle it can win & put all the thrust in those places. Unlike China, which is almost everywhere & bulldozing, India is slowly steadily negotiating with stakeholders & settling things permanently. The soft power giant, has started a war without firing a single bullet which it aims to win as well, without firing one.

Let there be a peaceful world. Let radicals be wiped off, from this beautiful planet.

Jai Hind!