India - Russia Relationship: Decoupling China

Source: BIIA.com

In 2014, when PM Modi took oath, he invited leaders of neighboring countries for the swearing-in ceremony. It was unexpected. Most likely sure Foreign Ministry officials would have gone into panic mode. But then, it was worth it. It did send out an important signal. That, this is new administration and would mean business. There has been a significant change in relationship since then. Multiple facets did shape this. But one thing stands out. Some traditional compulsions have been broken.

To start with, India has strived to break the way it deals with China and has signaled clearly that it sees China different from the way it sees Russia. In other words, India doesn't see China at par with Russia and that Russia is a more trusted ally which has stood test of times unlike China.

Why is this important? Well, because unlike West which sees China and Russia alike, we see the finer details and dwell deep into it.

Since 2014, there has been one buzzword "Decoupling". When it comes to this administration's foreign policy, the most underrated policy are "Decoupling" for "strategic independence". This has helped us to stay away from most of the troubled waters.

For example, we explained this "decoupling" of relations to our friends and made sure they don't let us & use Pakistan in same plane. So much so that when Saudi Crown Prince was to visit India, he went to Riyadh for a short hop after his Pakistan visit and returned to Delhi within hours. Over the last few years, this has started to deliver results. In the minds of Pakistani leadership and the people in general, it has now been registered that India is not even considering Pakistan as a rival and that India is miles ahead in various aspects as a Nation. From Digital payments to education to poverty alleviation. Today, people of Pakistan are speaking of how a country as big as India is excelling in service delivery without corruption.

Likewise, the decoupling of relationship with Russia and that of China while being a member of Russia - India - China & Shanghai Cooperation Organization on one side. And that of QUAD on the other. This has enabled India to stand up and steer clear of someone else's war.

Steadily, we are gaining our "strategic independence" to be able to contribute to providing solutions to world's much ignored & vulnerable Global South. For example, providing vaccines during pandemic & that of purchasing Russian oil.

So, this is now being applied for India - China relationship too. All along, people thought of China and Russia as two communist countries with similar aspirations. This decoupling by India would soon debunk the assumption that China is Russia's friend. No, it is not.

In 2018, Modi took two informal visits. First to China & then, to Russia. Let me rephrase it. He went to China. Came back to Delhi and left for Moscow shortly. Well, ideally, it'd have been as a visit to Beijing first and then to Moscow without a hop to Delhi. But then, we know how it was done by MBS of Saudi Arabia decoupling India - Pakistan. So, treat this is first step by PM Modi to decouple Russia - China. These relationships would be separate and one would always be better than the other.

Post this visit, a few things happened. Most that appears in news is that of Galwan and Wuhan virus. Not much has been written about on how India parallels started to work on its relationship with Central Asia and International North South Transit corridor. This will in due course reduce Russian dependence on China. Or, how India supported Russia passively on international forums over Ukraine. Or, how India stood steadfast on its oil purchase from Russia when it was politically incorrect to do so.

Today there's no direct land route to Russia from India. Even in INSTC there's going to be a short hop from India to Iran via seas. But, that is all. No need for long land route to Russia via China. The Western part of China is what we are targeting as a market and that's where real power lies. Russian Far East is taken care of by well established shipping lines. One recently inaugurated from Chennai to Vladivostok. Also, sea lanes are not where China has a huge say. ASEAN has too. So does Japan and South Korea. There is not going to be a single large dependency there on PRC.

China on the other hand, never did anything like this openly. In fact, there have been high level visits of US officials to China in recent past. Not a single word uttered over China supporting Russia over Ukraine. Why then should India adhere by West's dictum?

The recent utterances of US Ambassador to India are in very bad taste to put it lightly. He was seen recently threatening India.. Or, are they the original Wolf Warriors? Unbecoming of a dipolmat. Same with NSA of US Jake Sullivan. His utterances on MSNBC recently speaks volumes on how US is rudderless yet with attitude in middle of ocean. Over time, US can well expect a "gracious ignore" & zero response / weightage from India to their behavior (like how India treats Pakistan and Canada), if they don't mend their ways.

There's something even Jake Sullivan should read about. When he says. "Russia will side with China over India any day of the week" I want to ask him back, you sure buddy?

US should realize that the scar of March 1969 is still alive with Russia. China's deed since then, on Russian Far East has ruffled feathers in Moscow.

Again, this could be a reaction to the "decoupling" that US didn't expect. Fact is, US doesn't want India to go away from Chinese threat. Instead, it wanted India to take US support to neutralize China. Now that India is seeking Russian passive support to tackle China, US is into panic mode. They can't imagine dealing with China on their own, without India's active participation.

Hypothetically, let's assume India wants to neutralize China, taking help of Russia. How would Russia be able to help? Well, even if Russia stays away from a future Sino-Indian conflict, China would be destroyed in a matter of weeks, if not days. In fact, Russia would have less enemies & more friends in Far-East, if it takes an anti-China stand. Token of this, is why Brahmos was sent to Philippines.

You see where this is going? Let me break it down. US wants India to be its ally. China doesn't want India to be Russia's friend more than itself. Russia would need India more than China and is clearly signaling it. China, can't ally with US except for treasury bonds. US wants to intervene in Tibet - with or without India's participation. If Russia works on limiting itself to transactional relationship with China, a lot of countries in South China Sea (formerly Champa sea) would not be anti-Russia.

US knows all this. Hence, the recent reports of investing in Indian opposition leader has begun. China too is doing its bit. Clever by half. Trying to punch a hole into top leadership. Wang Yi spoke to India's NSA Ajit Doval to "properly handle" issues. Wang thinks, he is capable of driving wedge between NSA Ajit Doval and EAM Dr S Jaishankar. God bless him. The very fact Wang is forced to speak to Ajit Doval is because, EAM has eaten him already. But then, there's this thing about India. It is a democracy. It can't be destroyed wholly. 

Since 2014, India has tackled China & the threat imposed by it in a detailed way to a point of no return. Without any help of US / West. A short list. CPEC is gone for a toss. Gwadar is limping. No further investments. China's strategic partner against India, Pakistan is no more capable to fight India. It is dealing with TTP and Taliban. China thought Taliban would support Pakistan. It fell apart. Taliban is actually helping India, passively. Chinese string of pearls against India are falling apart. It'll fall apart fully in a couple of years. Bangladesh is now not playing the ball with China. PM Hasina has cut short her trip to Beijing.

In all this, Russia is silent. At the very least, Russia could have asked for Gwadar - Chahbahar cooperation. But, they didn't. In fact, it is surprising that Russia didn't block sale of Brahmos to Philippines by India. As it would most likely be used against China. If not officially, they could have asked for it unofficially. But, they didn't. 

Probably, this is Russian way of signaling that China is turning out to be a loser in long term. And are actually seeing India as a worthy partner. So, in the coming months and years, we'd see INSTC kicking into life and so would Russian Far East. Both would be connected to ASEAN and Asia - without China and Pakistan. Many equations might change in South China Sea (formerly Champa Sea) as well.

All this means, the decoupling would be upgraded and picked up by other countries.

Securing India's frontiers - Afghanistan

    Pic Source: military.wikia.org

A series of interlinked & possible scenarios in the coming weeks, months & years through this decade. Of course, this post is limited through publicly available information & hence, not dependent on all moving parts of the geopolitical machinery. Am not writing anything that is not available in public domain.

Few days ago, there was a breaking news. "US vacates Bagram Air Base outside Kabul" To many this is just news that day. What followed was a literally shameful runaway leaving equipment, radars and about 700 vehicles. Worst, they didn't even tell their Afghan counterparts that they're leaving. They just left switching off even the power. Yes, THEY JUST LEFT said local General of ASDF in an interview to WION. This is just running away from battlefield. A perfect defeatist posture, that Taliban wanted from day 1. After about 19 years of bloodshed.

A strange coincidence. Vietnam war lasted little over 19 years. As if history is repeating itself, an equally shameful defeat in Afghanistan for United States is coming up after 19 years of bloodshed. With the act of running away from Afghanistan, US has made sure of one thing. Forcing its allies to talk to Taliban - worst human rights abusers. On second thoughts, US might have just bettered Taliban, that has forced people in Afghanistan to side with Taliban than an elected Afghan Government. (Atleast as per some western media reports). Just pointing how badly a war is fought without a strategy or an objective. Least of all, achieving peace was never in mind. From the start, the very condescending attitude towards local culture was evident and one could say that US would lose the war within days after the fall of Taliban in Kabul.

US lost Afghanistan for just two reasons. First, just like in Vietnam, US won every battle in Afghanistan. But ultimately lost the war. Marines and machines don't win wars. It is maturity that does. You think, rolling tanks into villages would achieve peace in any part of the world. It won't work. US lost the battle that day itself. Secondly, people of Afghanistan are basically tired of war. They need a safe & quality life / future. No bullets. People like Amarullah Saleh, Hashmat Ghani & Atta Nasib should have been given a better role politically - for a few years now. Instead, US tried their best chances with people like Abdullah Abdullah. God bless them.

Securing Afghanistan is very important for the region. India seems to have realized this & started its moves from long ago. Recollect those umpteen visits by the then EAM Sushma Swaraj (I miss her!) and her successor EAM Jaishankar. They seem to have read the act that is coming up for Afghanistan in US. At the time of writing this, rumor is that many warlords have fled to Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. There are also rumors that Taliban is turning against their protector - Pakistani ISI - all along. This change in stance seems to have come after the recent DOUBLE Qatar visits (in June 2021) of EAM Jaishankar. We're indeed talking to the Taliban. Think of Muttawakil type in Delhi! But then, do we have a choice? We're pushed into it by US & West anyways.

As mentioned above, we're forced to talk to Taliban by US now. If not, we'd be faced with a deadly combo of Taliban and a failed state in Pakistan. Funny as it might sound. But back then it used to be said that a stable Pakistan is necessary for a stable Afghanistan. Now, for Pakistan to be safely dismantled we need to keep them busy with Taliban. Or should I say, keep Taliban busy & reduce them to rubble?

On the other hand, the "talks" with Taliban is a win-win for India. Because, it is Taliban who need Indian monetary & political support than we need them. We can have "some" leverage in Afghanistan through Taliban. Better than having none. What if Taliban goes against India in future? Well, don't you think, the visits to Central Asian Countries would have some reason? I leave it at that.

Per western media reports, Taliban is conquering village after village & district after district. But reality is, they're attacking outposts in those places. Yet to see the real deal. Let me give a teaser. The geography of some regions of Afghanistan is such, that it is very difficult to keep supply lines constantly open. Yes, there is a reason why 1000s of Afghan troops crossed into Tajikistan. But, it is not end of road for Afghanistan. By spreading thin, Taliban is risking its very existence. Sending a couple of Toyata Hilux with 10 mercenaries in each pick-up into streets don't make them victor. They need to face real bullets - which will definitely come in the coming days and weeks and months. Let's see if they hold on to it. So, don't fall for the mirage that media is creating that Taliban is winning. They're nowhere close to winning. Even if they do, it is very hard to sustain it. Rookies don't have a place there anymore.

Taliban should not live in la la land. A counterattack WILL come. Afghan Army would not go down without a tough fight. Some media reports do refer to this. If things get worse, some provinces / districts in Northern Afghanistan would see bloody clash. It would be like Northern Syria for sometime. Push would be from two sides for them this time. With US nowhere near them, CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) from Tajikistan side would give a push too. Enter Russia in the scenario. Did you see videos of tank movements from Siberia to Western Regions past few days? Well, relate to this.

IF things turn bloody in Northern Afghanistan, only two possibilities: Either Taliban rookies would be decimated. Or, would be contained to such an extent that they'd surrender themselves. Afghans are basically going to reclaim their land eitherways.

With Afghan threat contained, we come to Pakistan.

The very reason a state like Pakistan should exist should be questioned on three points: Logically, Economically & Strategically. 1) Are they self-sustainable & economically sound? No. They are begging for loans with every single country they meet - even on sidelines of Global events. With a lot of these events going virtual, they are hit quite bad without these sidelines happening. 2) Are they sticking to their reasons basis which they became a 'nation'? No. Had they been, Bangladesh would not have been lost. What is the solution then? Well, let them implode. Next chapter shall follow later. But, let there be no doubt. This would be initiated by India. Let there be no doubt, Pakistan would be dismantled.

The other aspect is, how we operate. When you can see us talking to Taliban, have you noticed how we're talking to Taliban's adversaries too? Likewise, for India to be safe and secure, we need equally secure energy supplies. Here's where we have played well with our options & worked with our strategic partners.

Aftermath:

Recently, there was a discussion at OPEC+. UAE and Saudi fought over a increasing few million barrels of oil. Standoff continues to this day. Possibility being speculated is that UAE might exit OPEC as analyzed by energyintel.com first. Now, being picked up by CNBC. US is trying to broker a peace deal. Why? Petro-dollar economy would crash, if OPEC falls apart. The ramifications of this, would be stark and not easy to see. Many don't want to see this either.

The region has started to prepare for the aftermath of Afghanistan. UAE Deputy Prime Minister and Iran Envoy to UAE discuss "cooperation". Whether this is regarding act in OPEC / OPEC+ or with reference to regional security issues is to be seen. Not much is given in this news report. But, what is surprising is, within 24 hours, Indian External Affairs Minister lands in Tehran and gets audience with no less than the new Iranian President. This is nothing less than a surprise. Such visits don't happen just like that.

Why is this landing in Tehran important? Well, for two reasons: 1) Indian EAM has visited Qatar and has channels Larger picture is that, Indian Minister landed in Tehran while on his way to Moscow. Which is to work on two flanks of Indian security that are under stress.

Russia and UAE are key partners. Russia is predominantly a "counter-balance" for unipolar worldview of US & China in the region. UAE helps with anti-Radical front in the region & that for the world.

An informed guess makes one anticipate possible futureevents due to US actions in Afghanistan: 

1. An exit from Iraq.

2. Ditching of allies in Pacific to defend themselves. Which will enable China to go hyper-aggressive in Asia & even may attempt the Taiwan act. Australia should rise up to the occasion if it happens.

3. China is being stretched to the maximum already. It'll be further weakened by stretching further and a battle in the Pacific Ocean would only worsen their status.

4. It is better if China doesn't attempt any foolish moves before Beijing Olympics 2022. Zhongnanhai knows reasons well.

5. Russia is already talking to partners in ASEAN. Russian FM Lavrov was in Laos.

Conclusion:
With many such events, we are in for very interesting months. A lot is happening far behind limelight. So, Taliban is not winning anything. If at all, it is losing and taking Pakistan with it. Don't fall for cheap western propaganda of NYT type media houses. They even gave space to Taliban for Op-Eds.

Will write another post detailing each of the above mentioned "expected events" and reasons.

Correcting mistakes in Indo-Pacific Region

Pic source: Wiki

An unstructured commentary on developments in the extended neighborhood in Indo-Pacific Region. Let us take a few key countries.

Australia

If you think, India has done well in correcting mistakes of the past with decisive steps with long term strategic goals as pivot. Think again. My impartial view is, Australia is equally better. They've done quite well in a short term & in a structured way.

Would you believe, if I tell you, it is nothing short of miracle, that a country as big as Australia escaped by a whisker from clutches of China. It was a 360° assault on Sovereignty. Now This may sound a hype or even a myth. But, that's what quite happened. Let me give you a few key pointers without going into the details.

China was in the midst of making Australia (!!??) as their vassal - just as they were trying with India. Why would they do that? Very simple answer is, it is always good to have two large democracies as vassal of an authoritarian regime to get all their 'acts' validated in the region. The proverbial, "plausible deniability" would be much easier if you have democracies by their side. China can always make the argument, "Hey, but free and fair democracies in the region support our actions." 

Now that we know the motive, does it end here, what is the ultimate goal? By sending thousands of students every year to Australian universities, China has also tried to influence students from other countries who study in those very universities. Mind you, these other country students include those from India, Singapore & Pacific islands. These students come from either poor or upper-middle class families. Quite humble souls. They're there to just to study & go about their business. By sending in more numbers per university, Chinese students were always more in number & roam around in one pack, than those from free thinking democracies who are tough to gel as one pack. This started something what I call, "the inflicted Stockholm syndrome" artificially. To such an extent that recently, an Indian professor invited severe backlash from Chinese students when he referred to Taiwan. Yes, this happen. Some reports were out on China has been stealing research papers from universities & sending them back to China. I leave it to you to do research on how politicians funded by China have a hold on Australian Universities.

Does it end with colleges? No. This goes to workplace and work environment there too. And then, this extended into precious real-estate & military / strategic interests in Pacific Island family. The scale was enormous and did drag attention after ruffling a few feathers.

I feel, it is in this context that Indo-Pacific was actually born. Mainly to thwart the advancing Chinese wedge. You know, the good thing about the wedge? It has to be driven in a particular angle. Chinese have made a wedge. But they are slapping it against the wood. Which won't break the wood! Similarly, they are aggressive diplomatically. But, no one is sure on military. Here, China's adversaries have already started preparing since 2016. Long before China woke up & was busy regulating tourists to countries basis their 'quota' - from Maldives to Australia to Africa. (Trivia: Yes, tourists spending is part of every deal signed by China with every other country as part of BRI. Open source, you can research. It will require one more post on Chinese tourists.) 

Game began in 2015. World was changing. Japan had Abe entering 3rd term. India had a change of guard with PM Modi at the helm. Scott Morrison as Federal Treasurer was getting strict with Chinese. Cancelling some key deals with Chinese in sight. Two key ones worth mentioning would be: 1) Blocking an Ausgrid project linked to Pine Gap. 2) Blocking sale of S. Kidman and Co. 

A special thanks to ASD / ASIO & FIRB officials for stopping such key asset bids / sale to China. Even PM Turnbull wasn't confident of going forward with the recommendations and feared that there'd be a backlash from China. (Widely covered in media.)

Meanwhile, politics played its part & Treasurer Scott Morrison becomes PM Scott Morrison. Blessing in disguise. All along, security cooperation with countries in the region had started - albeit as a soft-launch with India, US & Japan. Australia is still not part of QUAD - militarily. As much, I'd welcome Australia's participation, the threat of China infested security apparatus is still significant. The cleanup is going to take some time & rightly so. Am sure, with the "2020 Defence Strategic Update" - which is a formal roadmap backed up with funds worth A$270 Bn. That's 40% increase of what the "strategic review 2016" promised A$195Bn.

Few weeks ago, China stopped food imports from Australia. And was hoping someone else could sell it to them. This is no loss for Australia. Any purchase from half-way around the globe would invite serious logistical issue in case of war. What would happen when food is getting choked is anyone's guess.

Fast forward mid-July 2020. With such aggressive Chinese moves and the infamous 'chewing gum' comment by Global Times, the process has only got more momentum and motivation to move away from China.

Needless to say, this opportunity will definitely be used by QUAD. There are unconfirmed reports in Indian media that, India plans to invite Australia to join the annual Malabar naval exercise. Hopefully, this time, it would be for real and complete. For it is Australia which can help us create a 'bridge' with Pacific Islands along with Fiji.

Fiji

Frank Bainimarama, especially is key to the pivot on Pacific Island race that is going on. The race is about how to get more of these island nations on their side of the game. The game is between China and US backed allies. Led by Republic of China (Taiwan) and Australia. With India entering the scene, I think, there's more to this. Indian PM's visit to Fiji in 2014 is a milestone and subsequent changes in polity of Fiji is worth mentioning. Why so? Because, Modi & Bainimarama did something unexpected. Invited Heads of State of all 14 Pacific Island nations, for formation of "Forum for India and Pacific Island Countries (FIPIC)" based on India's Africa engagement success story. Constant followup made further improvements. The 2017 India and Pacific Islands Development Conference, for instance.

Tuvalu, Samoa and few other are flipping more than often between China & Democratic nations. Wrong. They should stand with free world and do the right thing. Rest of the world should do all that is possible to stop these small nations falling into the debt trap of China. Unsustainable amounts of monies to these countries would make them colonies of China once & for all. The line should be drawn to stop China far before it leaves shores of Mainland China.

Philippines

Another key partner in this anti-China coalition that is building up, is Philippines. In 2016, Philippines won the ruling in Permanent Court of Arbitration. Until July 12th 2020, Philippines was seen going slow / soft on the ruling. Which emboldened China in its rogue attitude and honing skills of Wolf-warrior diplomacy. Ultimately leading to a failure today. As Philippines did a U-turn on this issue which could dent China's claims in South China Sea. Manila said today that it is not willing to compromise on 2016 ruling. Few days ago, Manila also made another statement. That, India is interested in navigating South China Sea.

Guam (United States)

In 2018, there were some movement about Indian Armed Forces (Airforce & Navy) in Indo-Pacific region. Especially, expansion of its role in Pacific. It was widely reported too. Then, it went out of news cycle. Probably put into backburner. Thanks to China & its arrogance, this re-appeared in last week of June 2020. Now, news is that US is planning to introduce National Defense Authorization Act for 2021. This would now enable Fighter Jet training in Guam, for detachments from Australia, India & Japan.

Chile

On South Pacific, India is doing something very interesting. It is leveraging age old ties with Chile to help counter China. Chile, in all probabilities would be India's pivot to Latin America. The PM Modi - President Pinera meeting of August 2019 might have played well, I guess. October 2019, Chile Announces Cancellation of 2019 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit. (That it was a surprise for US is a different story.) Now, fast-forward to April 2020, after being hit badly with China Virus, Chile & Latin American countries in the larger context are moving away from China. Probably, the meeting of August helped Chile sense what is coming for China even before the pandemic. China's fall was written on the wall. Pandemic, just made it faster.

Some news from Chile, on how Indian Private & State owned Arms Manufacturers are preferring Chile.  Indo-Russian JV Brahmos is also invited, is additional story. That means, a bell must have rung. For us, Chile is a pivot for larger South American continent. Hope to see more joint efforts. Wish the participation of Indian Navy in EXPONAVAL 2020 things would move to next level of cooperation.  Hopefully, expect more developments in this regard.

Thanks to China Virus, Democracies have got a golden opportunity to wake up to crude reality & achieve world peace through non-coercive actions based on logic & justice. I am hoping to see a day when Pacific Island nations, Australia, South Korea & Japan - along with India, be part of an unsinkable coalition across Indo-Pacific region making it unsustainable for China-like countries to even have guts to go against Rules Based Order. Any make any offensive moves & threaten people of free world. If this is dubbed as Cold War 2.0, SO BE IT. An example should be made out of China in the coming months & years. Hope to see CCP Politburo members & PLA Generals in International Criminal Court.

UPDATE: Australia approaches UN over claims over South China Sea. In its petition to the UN, Australia rejects China’s “historical claims” in the SCS since they violate international law & the UN's Law of the Sea Australia is also the first country outside the South China Sea region to approach the UN on China’s claims. Read more here.

Must watch / read references:

1) Stratnewsglobal interview with Amb Navdeep Suri (ex Indian envoy to Australia)

2) Australian PM Scott Morrison announces Strategic Update 2020.

3) Philippines Says No Compromise on 2016 Sea Victory Against China

4) India intersted in navigating in the South China Sea

5) US: NDA act seeks fighter jet training detachment for India, Japan, Australia in Guam

6) India - Chile in South Pacific

7) India's strategic expansion in Southern Pacific Islands

Korean conundrum of China

(Pic courtesy: Nikkei Asian Review)

Was hunting for some good documentaries. Came across this ABC News documentary. I'd highly recommend if you are a China watcher.

First few interesting points from the documentary. A broad outline.

1. Chinese wanted to develop a lot of Korean - Chinese border areas along with Kim Jong Un's uncle Jang Song - Thaek.

2. The $350Mn bridge in Dandong (Liaoning) which lands on a farm across Yalu River in North Korea. Google Map link here.

3. This bridge construction has come to a grinding halt, after Kim Jong Un executed his uncle. Probably for close ties with China without informing Kim Jong Un.

4. There are bridges that KJU built for Generals to escape, in case war breaks out in North Korea. And Chinese are nervous about that if war breaks out, and these fellows escape, US & South Korean tanks would be there in no time.

5. North Koreans treat Manchurian region of China as theirs. South Koreans want Korea to be united.

6. North Koreans think, what is currently with China (Manchuria a.k.a Third Korea) was theirs once. And, whatever China is giving to support North Korea, is actually something that China owes them for snatching their land. Including part of Mount Paektu. (You could read about these in my previous post here.)

Now, my opinions.

From China's point of view, it doesn't seem to have much friends. Those that are currently also, are in a love-hate relationship. This is not for all-weather friendships that one can depend on at times of war. If a troubled time-warped country like North Korea also doesn't stand by China, something is seriously wrong with the China's leadership. 

Interesting facet of this relationship is, looking back in time, how Thaek's execution set ball rolling for Korea to ring up Donald Trump's number to rattle Chinese. Xi seem to be having a very hot potato on his hand. You got to keep funding Kim Jong Un for his nuclear ambitions. Or, he'll side with Donald Trump & tanks would come rolling on the other side of Yalu River or Tumen River.

Looking back, it also makes sense why China was supportive of sanctions & de-nuclearization of North Korea. It is not in China's interest to have one more nuclear neighbor (after India & Russia. US is also based out of Japan & Taiwan.)

Last week, Kim Jong Un disappeared for a few days. Not many thought he'd even be alive. China panicked & even sent a team. Many theories floated around. Ultimately, it was supposedly to check if China is still interested in protecting him. And now it seems, per this report, Kim Jong Un was apparently faking it.

It is China which alienated Kim Jong Un. The North Koreans actually seems to have shown China what they could do, if not supported by China. Hence, ended up pitting China against US. More could be read here.

Things you can make from this:

a. It is a very complicated geography coupled with more complex history. Hence, it is usually radical out of box solutions that work.

b. Such solutions need strong leaders in both countries to accept the solution as it is.

c. Currently, such a leader is not in power in China, contrary to popular perception, Xi is actually weak when seen inside party politics.

d. If Xi is weak, who else? Well, that is something only time could answer. As of this minute, nobody knows when such leaders would come to the fore.

e. Forget global ambitions. China should get atleast a few all-weather friends. They seem to be acting selfish for a very long time & it is going to affect them sooner or later.

Remember one thing. Entire border of North Korea & China is divided by two rivers. Yalu & Tumen, which source from same source. A volcano. Ironically, also the water body is called Heaven Lake. Seems, jinxed right at the source.

I'd leave it at that, for your conclusion.