Securing India's frontiers - Afghanistan

    Pic Source: military.wikia.org

A series of interlinked & possible scenarios in the coming weeks, months & years through this decade. Of course, this post is limited through publicly available information & hence, not dependent on all moving parts of the geopolitical machinery. Am not writing anything that is not available in public domain.

Few days ago, there was a breaking news. "US vacates Bagram Air Base outside Kabul" To many this is just news that day. What followed was a literally shameful runaway leaving equipment, radars and about 700 vehicles. Worst, they didn't even tell their Afghan counterparts that they're leaving. They just left switching off even the power. Yes, THEY JUST LEFT said local General of ASDF in an interview to WION. This is just running away from battlefield. A perfect defeatist posture, that Taliban wanted from day 1. After about 19 years of bloodshed.

A strange coincidence. Vietnam war lasted little over 19 years. As if history is repeating itself, an equally shameful defeat in Afghanistan for United States is coming up after 19 years of bloodshed. With the act of running away from Afghanistan, US has made sure of one thing. Forcing its allies to talk to Taliban - worst human rights abusers. On second thoughts, US might have just bettered Taliban, that has forced people in Afghanistan to side with Taliban than an elected Afghan Government. (Atleast as per some western media reports). Just pointing how badly a war is fought without a strategy or an objective. Least of all, achieving peace was never in mind. From the start, the very condescending attitude towards local culture was evident and one could say that US would lose the war within days after the fall of Taliban in Kabul.

US lost Afghanistan for just two reasons. First, just like in Vietnam, US won every battle in Afghanistan. But ultimately lost the war. Marines and machines don't win wars. It is maturity that does. You think, rolling tanks into villages would achieve peace in any part of the world. It won't work. US lost the battle that day itself. Secondly, people of Afghanistan are basically tired of war. They need a safe & quality life / future. No bullets. People like Amarullah Saleh, Hashmat Ghani & Atta Nasib should have been given a better role politically - for a few years now. Instead, US tried their best chances with people like Abdullah Abdullah. God bless them.

Securing Afghanistan is very important for the region. India seems to have realized this & started its moves from long ago. Recollect those umpteen visits by the then EAM Sushma Swaraj (I miss her!) and her successor EAM Jaishankar. They seem to have read the act that is coming up for Afghanistan in US. At the time of writing this, rumor is that many warlords have fled to Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. There are also rumors that Taliban is turning against their protector - Pakistani ISI - all along. This change in stance seems to have come after the recent DOUBLE Qatar visits (in June 2021) of EAM Jaishankar. We're indeed talking to the Taliban. Think of Muttawakil type in Delhi! But then, do we have a choice? We're pushed into it by US & West anyways.

As mentioned above, we're forced to talk to Taliban by US now. If not, we'd be faced with a deadly combo of Taliban and a failed state in Pakistan. Funny as it might sound. But back then it used to be said that a stable Pakistan is necessary for a stable Afghanistan. Now, for Pakistan to be safely dismantled we need to keep them busy with Taliban. Or should I say, keep Taliban busy & reduce them to rubble?

On the other hand, the "talks" with Taliban is a win-win for India. Because, it is Taliban who need Indian monetary & political support than we need them. We can have "some" leverage in Afghanistan through Taliban. Better than having none. What if Taliban goes against India in future? Well, don't you think, the visits to Central Asian Countries would have some reason? I leave it at that.

Per western media reports, Taliban is conquering village after village & district after district. But reality is, they're attacking outposts in those places. Yet to see the real deal. Let me give a teaser. The geography of some regions of Afghanistan is such, that it is very difficult to keep supply lines constantly open. Yes, there is a reason why 1000s of Afghan troops crossed into Tajikistan. But, it is not end of road for Afghanistan. By spreading thin, Taliban is risking its very existence. Sending a couple of Toyata Hilux with 10 mercenaries in each pick-up into streets don't make them victor. They need to face real bullets - which will definitely come in the coming days and weeks and months. Let's see if they hold on to it. So, don't fall for the mirage that media is creating that Taliban is winning. They're nowhere close to winning. Even if they do, it is very hard to sustain it. Rookies don't have a place there anymore.

Taliban should not live in la la land. A counterattack WILL come. Afghan Army would not go down without a tough fight. Some media reports do refer to this. If things get worse, some provinces / districts in Northern Afghanistan would see bloody clash. It would be like Northern Syria for sometime. Push would be from two sides for them this time. With US nowhere near them, CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) from Tajikistan side would give a push too. Enter Russia in the scenario. Did you see videos of tank movements from Siberia to Western Regions past few days? Well, relate to this.

IF things turn bloody in Northern Afghanistan, only two possibilities: Either Taliban rookies would be decimated. Or, would be contained to such an extent that they'd surrender themselves. Afghans are basically going to reclaim their land eitherways.

With Afghan threat contained, we come to Pakistan.

The very reason a state like Pakistan should exist should be questioned on three points: Logically, Economically & Strategically. 1) Are they self-sustainable & economically sound? No. They are begging for loans with every single country they meet - even on sidelines of Global events. With a lot of these events going virtual, they are hit quite bad without these sidelines happening. 2) Are they sticking to their reasons basis which they became a 'nation'? No. Had they been, Bangladesh would not have been lost. What is the solution then? Well, let them implode. Next chapter shall follow later. But, let there be no doubt. This would be initiated by India. Let there be no doubt, Pakistan would be dismantled.

The other aspect is, how we operate. When you can see us talking to Taliban, have you noticed how we're talking to Taliban's adversaries too? Likewise, for India to be safe and secure, we need equally secure energy supplies. Here's where we have played well with our options & worked with our strategic partners.

Aftermath:

Recently, there was a discussion at OPEC+. UAE and Saudi fought over a increasing few million barrels of oil. Standoff continues to this day. Possibility being speculated is that UAE might exit OPEC as analyzed by energyintel.com first. Now, being picked up by CNBC. US is trying to broker a peace deal. Why? Petro-dollar economy would crash, if OPEC falls apart. The ramifications of this, would be stark and not easy to see. Many don't want to see this either.

The region has started to prepare for the aftermath of Afghanistan. UAE Deputy Prime Minister and Iran Envoy to UAE discuss "cooperation". Whether this is regarding act in OPEC / OPEC+ or with reference to regional security issues is to be seen. Not much is given in this news report. But, what is surprising is, within 24 hours, Indian External Affairs Minister lands in Tehran and gets audience with no less than the new Iranian President. This is nothing less than a surprise. Such visits don't happen just like that.

Why is this landing in Tehran important? Well, for two reasons: 1) Indian EAM has visited Qatar and has channels Larger picture is that, Indian Minister landed in Tehran while on his way to Moscow. Which is to work on two flanks of Indian security that are under stress.

Russia and UAE are key partners. Russia is predominantly a "counter-balance" for unipolar worldview of US & China in the region. UAE helps with anti-Radical front in the region & that for the world.

An informed guess makes one anticipate possible futureevents due to US actions in Afghanistan: 

1. An exit from Iraq.

2. Ditching of allies in Pacific to defend themselves. Which will enable China to go hyper-aggressive in Asia & even may attempt the Taiwan act. Australia should rise up to the occasion if it happens.

3. China is being stretched to the maximum already. It'll be further weakened by stretching further and a battle in the Pacific Ocean would only worsen their status.

4. It is better if China doesn't attempt any foolish moves before Beijing Olympics 2022. Zhongnanhai knows reasons well.

5. Russia is already talking to partners in ASEAN. Russian FM Lavrov was in Laos.

Conclusion:
With many such events, we are in for very interesting months. A lot is happening far behind limelight. So, Taliban is not winning anything. If at all, it is losing and taking Pakistan with it. Don't fall for cheap western propaganda of NYT type media houses. They even gave space to Taliban for Op-Eds.

Will write another post detailing each of the above mentioned "expected events" and reasons.

India, chooses its battles wisely in changing times

Pic Source: economictimes.indiatimes.com

India is changing. Ok, it is not a mere rhetoric. At the outset, this is not something you'd see daily for it to be thought of / realize. Promise, won't bore you with numbers & theorems. So, read fully before judging.

Peaceful international climate is a prized art. Can be made possible with just one master sculptor. India had that for thousands of years. Now, slowly we're claiming it back. Some thoughts on how things are moving in unseen wheels of change. Like wise, the battles that India has started too, is not about Military might (though it has one!) True to its ethos, India will use Military as only the last option.

Halal: Some weeks back, there was some issue with a food delivery company. It was organic. People took it up. But, during course of it, it was made clear that how it is not religion neutral at all. Halal, for example, is said to be employing staff belonging to one particular community. And now, McDonalds has joined the controversy in India. Saying, they only serve Halal. Now, people in India are now asking, why should we be forced to consume which we don't want to & why Jhatka is not available? Righly so.

Slowly & steadily eroding the practice of Jhatka meat (or any non-Halal meat processing) - which means, slowly & steadily one community is holding sway on the multi billion dollar meat industry. Now, think. This is not just in India. Halal is almost prevalent everywhere across the world. See the point?

Unknowingly, we've started to accommodate what a minuscule minority has imposed on us for their dominance. Now, the majority is just asking politically incorrect & logical questions. Can you imagine what will happen if the halal meat industry is hit big time, world over? Will discuss at the end about it.

RuPay: The push & pull of global economy always is from the nation which controls maximum money. Of others as well than just of its own especially. Right now, Master Card & Visa have been unquestionably dominant over decades on payment gateways. THAT China's Union Pay tried to break. Without much success, Union Pay did make a dent. The ultimate competition came from Digital payments from India with the launch of BHIM by NPCIL. Ever thought about paying in foreign countries using an entirely Indian product like RuPay Cards and BHIM? That's what has happened. What this means is that anyone can get it even outside India. Pay using BHIM / RuPay cards. UPI in major financial markets of Asia (Singapore, UAE) & oil market of Bahrain, Tourist destinations of Bhutan & Maldives (rings a Chinese gong?) This is just a start. India has plans to extend this to other markets. With Hong Kong facing trouble, money expected to move to Singapore, Seoul, Tokyo & Mumbai, this move is critical and timely.

I leave it to your research on the amount of money across the region will enter our payments gateway in Rupee and in other currencies, which will strengthen Rupee and India at a macro level.

Whoever thought about this approach to getting leverage / say in global economy. Hats off!

GCC: From being recipient awarded highest Civilian awards of Palestine, Afghanistan, Saudi, UAE & Bahrain. To the trust of a friend to getting ports for Navy in Oman to building a port in Iran to rescuing people in Yemen. Last but not the least, getting the warmth of the direct link of Islam - King Abdullah of Jordan. India has friends made quite good friends across the region. Why & how did this happen? Energy security in exchange for food security. You think, in normal circumstances it was even possible for us to get heard? We're not a member of the grouping even today, a country with largest number of Muslims.

Gulf countries have realized that radical Islam is real danger to their survival & they can't let it grow beyond a point even if it benefited them in the past. Let this thought gain more weight and let more people welcome it.

Renewables: Gulf nations are not only securing their oil for future use. But also investing heavily in renewable. The global push & pull for energy requirements will actually slowdown as many nations are expected to follow renewable route to energy self-reliance. Of course, all in the umberalla reason of saving Planet Earth & environment. You get it, right? :-)

With India moving towards either a fully electric or a hybrid ICE vehicle regime by 2025, it is surely going to help change a lot in current paradigm. Of course, it will have its own niggles, but that's okay for a long term betterment.

India's solar alliance, remember? It has nations from as far as Pacific island of Fiji to Solomon Islands to Bolivia in South America to Sri Lanka to Uganda, Gambia in Africa. Just to mention the reach. It is spread across the globe. Big & small. Do the math if 77 Countries of the world with France leading the initiative in EU. Japan helping with funding & technology. Ever imagined how this will dent the thriving war industry which is after energy rich nations & territories?

Terrorism: Next theater of terrorism & war on terror is not Arabian peninsula or Asia. It will be Europe. UAE in Persian Gulf is turning to sustainable terms of nation building & eradicating the evil of terrorism. Even Saudi's Crown Prince is talking about women's empowerment, eradicating radical elements from the region and religion. Afghanistan is already blaming Pakistan on the issues of terrorism. A destabilized Pakistan will only create another IS in the region. Which is not good for ANY of the stake holders - for at least 2000kms radius! Russia & China are doing their own way. While we in the immediate neighborhood need to be sure that we don't end up bearing the brunt.

Hence all the above steps are necessary. How?

A radical doesn't become radical on his own. The radical has support of political islam. Political Islam is the one which opposes anything opposed to religion of Islam. Meaning, they set the rules.

Ask the following questions:

Who imposed halal on non-halal markets?

How was hawala transactions done?

How much oil money flow into India for nefarious activities, without any data / metrics / measure / anyone monitoring it?

Now, that game has changed. Now what will a radical do when funds dry up? As of today, a radical is mostly from unorganized sector without job security & is working for meager wages with more than two kids. Living in poor quality life in ghettos. The entire economy of him & his family is outside the system. With this pace of digital payments, the move from cash less (also an option) to less cash (only as an option) will transpire swift expected. This also means, more people into the system / mainstay economy. No parallel economy. This will demolish the radicalist's economy. This is why there was a lot of noise during demonetization in India.

Discount the religion factor out. Just imagine the potential of a parallel economy that is possible by selling meat alone in a country as big as India through halal in almost every store (as there is no other choice!) with almost complete monopoly. This is where the hit has happened.

Do you notice a faster degradation of Pakistan Economy post-Demonetization? I am not saying it is due to DeMo. But, can it be a coincidence? Is Pakistan somewhere burning itself out to bring down India? Is it fighting a losing battle? Come what may, Pakistan won't exist beyond a point. It is already existing beyond its expiry date. With GCC moving closer to India than Pakistan & FATF threat looming, game is coming to a close for them.

More payments through our payment gateway, with our Income Tax Department & Government agencies closely watching the funding from abroad, it is gold mine of data & threats would be more swiftly acted upon. There is no other way out.

With concerted moves, India, chooses its battles wisely in changing times. Didn't fight all the battle thrown at it. It chose the battle it can win & put all the thrust in those places. Unlike China, which is almost everywhere & bulldozing, India is slowly steadily negotiating with stakeholders & settling things permanently. The soft power giant, has started a war without firing a single bullet which it aims to win as well, without firing one.

Let there be a peaceful world. Let radicals be wiped off, from this beautiful planet.

Jai Hind!