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| Source: BIIA.com |
In 2014, when PM Modi took oath, he invited leaders of neighboring countries for the swearing-in ceremony. It was unexpected. Most likely sure Foreign Ministry officials would have gone into panic mode. But then, it was worth it. It did send out an important signal. That, this is new administration and would mean business. There has been a significant change in relationship since then. Multiple facets did shape this. But one thing stands out. Some traditional compulsions have been broken.
To start with, India has strived to break the way it deals with China and has signaled clearly that it sees China different from the way it sees Russia. In other words, India doesn't see China at par with Russia and that Russia is a more trusted ally which has stood test of times unlike China.
Why is this important? Well, because unlike West which sees China and Russia alike, we see the finer details and dwell deep into it.
Since 2014, there has been one buzzword "Decoupling". When it comes to this administration's foreign policy, the most underrated policy are "Decoupling" for "strategic independence". This has helped us to stay away from most of the troubled waters.
For example, we explained this "decoupling" of relations to our friends and made sure they don't let us & use Pakistan in same plane. So much so that when Saudi Crown Prince was to visit India, he went to Riyadh for a short hop after his Pakistan visit and returned to Delhi within hours. Over the last few years, this has started to deliver results. In the minds of Pakistani leadership and the people in general, it has now been registered that India is not even considering Pakistan as a rival and that India is miles ahead in various aspects as a Nation. From Digital payments to education to poverty alleviation. Today, people of Pakistan are speaking of how a country as big as India is excelling in service delivery without corruption.
Likewise, the decoupling of relationship with Russia and that of China while being a member of Russia - India - China & Shanghai Cooperation Organization on one side. And that of QUAD on the other. This has enabled India to stand up and steer clear of someone else's war.
Steadily, we are gaining our "strategic independence" to be able to contribute to providing solutions to world's much ignored & vulnerable Global South. For example, providing vaccines during pandemic & that of purchasing Russian oil.
So, this is now being applied for India - China relationship too. All along, people thought of China and Russia as two communist countries with similar aspirations. This decoupling by India would soon debunk the assumption that China is Russia's friend. No, it is not.
In 2018, Modi took two informal visits. First to China & then, to Russia. Let me rephrase it. He went to China. Came back to Delhi and left for Moscow shortly. Well, ideally, it'd have been as a visit to Beijing first and then to Moscow without a hop to Delhi. But then, we know how it was done by MBS of Saudi Arabia decoupling India - Pakistan. So, treat this is first step by PM Modi to decouple Russia - China. These relationships would be separate and one would always be better than the other.
Post this visit, a few things happened. Most that appears in news is that of Galwan and Wuhan virus. Not much has been written about on how India parallels started to work on its relationship with Central Asia and International North South Transit corridor. This will in due course reduce Russian dependence on China. Or, how India supported Russia passively on international forums over Ukraine. Or, how India stood steadfast on its oil purchase from Russia when it was politically incorrect to do so.
Today there's no direct land route to Russia from India. Even in INSTC there's going to be a short hop from India to Iran via seas. But, that is all. No need for long land route to Russia via China. The Western part of China is what we are targeting as a market and that's where real power lies. Russian Far East is taken care of by well established shipping lines. One recently inaugurated from Chennai to Vladivostok. Also, sea lanes are not where China has a huge say. ASEAN has too. So does Japan and South Korea. There is not going to be a single large dependency there on PRC.
China on the other hand, never did anything like this openly. In fact, there have been high level visits of US officials to China in recent past. Not a single word uttered over China supporting Russia over Ukraine. Why then should India adhere by West's dictum?
The recent utterances of US Ambassador to India are in very bad taste to put it lightly. He was seen recently threatening India.. Or, are they the original Wolf Warriors? Unbecoming of a dipolmat. Same with NSA of US Jake Sullivan. His utterances on MSNBC recently speaks volumes on how US is rudderless yet with attitude in middle of ocean. Over time, US can well expect a "gracious ignore" & zero response / weightage from India to their behavior (like how India treats Pakistan and Canada), if they don't mend their ways.
There's something even Jake Sullivan should read about. When he says. "Russia will side with China over India any day of the week" I want to ask him back, you sure buddy?
US should realize that the scar of March 1969 is still alive with Russia. China's deed since then, on Russian Far East has ruffled feathers in Moscow.
Again, this could be a reaction to the "decoupling" that US didn't expect. Fact is, US doesn't want India to go away from Chinese threat. Instead, it wanted India to take US support to neutralize China. Now that India is seeking Russian passive support to tackle China, US is into panic mode. They can't imagine dealing with China on their own, without India's active participation.
Hypothetically, let's assume India wants to neutralize China, taking help of Russia. How would Russia be able to help? Well, even if Russia stays away from a future Sino-Indian conflict, China would be destroyed in a matter of weeks, if not days. In fact, Russia would have less enemies & more friends in Far-East, if it takes an anti-China stand. Token of this, is why Brahmos was sent to Philippines.
You see where this is going? Let me break it down. US wants India to be its ally. China doesn't want India to be Russia's friend more than itself. Russia would need India more than China and is clearly signaling it. China, can't ally with US except for treasury bonds. US wants to intervene in Tibet - with or without India's participation. If Russia works on limiting itself to transactional relationship with China, a lot of countries in South China Sea (formerly Champa sea) would not be anti-Russia.
US knows all this. Hence, the recent reports of investing in Indian opposition leader has begun. China too is doing its bit. Clever by half. Trying to punch a hole into top leadership. Wang Yi spoke to India's NSA Ajit Doval to "properly handle" issues. Wang thinks, he is capable of driving wedge between NSA Ajit Doval and EAM Dr S Jaishankar. God bless him. The very fact Wang is forced to speak to Ajit Doval is because, EAM has eaten him already. But then, there's this thing about India. It is a democracy. It can't be destroyed wholly.
Since 2014, India has tackled China & the threat imposed by it in a detailed way to a point of no return. Without any help of US / West. A short list. CPEC is gone for a toss. Gwadar is limping. No further investments. China's strategic partner against India, Pakistan is no more capable to fight India. It is dealing with TTP and Taliban. China thought Taliban would support Pakistan. It fell apart. Taliban is actually helping India, passively. Chinese string of pearls against India are falling apart. It'll fall apart fully in a couple of years. Bangladesh is now not playing the ball with China. PM Hasina has cut short her trip to Beijing.
In all this, Russia is silent. At the very least, Russia could have asked for Gwadar - Chahbahar cooperation. But, they didn't. In fact, it is surprising that Russia didn't block sale of Brahmos to Philippines by India. As it would most likely be used against China. If not officially, they could have asked for it unofficially. But, they didn't.
Probably, this is Russian way of signaling that China is turning out to be a loser in long term. And are actually seeing India as a worthy partner. So, in the coming months and years, we'd see INSTC kicking into life and so would Russian Far East. Both would be connected to ASEAN and Asia - without China and Pakistan. Many equations might change in South China Sea (formerly Champa Sea) as well.
All this means, the decoupling would be upgraded and picked up by other countries.