India - Russia Relationship: Decoupling China

Source: BIIA.com

In 2014, when PM Modi took oath, he invited leaders of neighboring countries for the swearing-in ceremony. It was unexpected. Most likely sure Foreign Ministry officials would have gone into panic mode. But then, it was worth it. It did send out an important signal. That, this is new administration and would mean business. There has been a significant change in relationship since then. Multiple facets did shape this. But one thing stands out. Some traditional compulsions have been broken.

To start with, India has strived to break the way it deals with China and has signaled clearly that it sees China different from the way it sees Russia. In other words, India doesn't see China at par with Russia and that Russia is a more trusted ally which has stood test of times unlike China.

Why is this important? Well, because unlike West which sees China and Russia alike, we see the finer details and dwell deep into it.

Since 2014, there has been one buzzword "Decoupling". When it comes to this administration's foreign policy, the most underrated policy are "Decoupling" for "strategic independence". This has helped us to stay away from most of the troubled waters.

For example, we explained this "decoupling" of relations to our friends and made sure they don't let us & use Pakistan in same plane. So much so that when Saudi Crown Prince was to visit India, he went to Riyadh for a short hop after his Pakistan visit and returned to Delhi within hours. Over the last few years, this has started to deliver results. In the minds of Pakistani leadership and the people in general, it has now been registered that India is not even considering Pakistan as a rival and that India is miles ahead in various aspects as a Nation. From Digital payments to education to poverty alleviation. Today, people of Pakistan are speaking of how a country as big as India is excelling in service delivery without corruption.

Likewise, the decoupling of relationship with Russia and that of China while being a member of Russia - India - China & Shanghai Cooperation Organization on one side. And that of QUAD on the other. This has enabled India to stand up and steer clear of someone else's war.

Steadily, we are gaining our "strategic independence" to be able to contribute to providing solutions to world's much ignored & vulnerable Global South. For example, providing vaccines during pandemic & that of purchasing Russian oil.

So, this is now being applied for India - China relationship too. All along, people thought of China and Russia as two communist countries with similar aspirations. This decoupling by India would soon debunk the assumption that China is Russia's friend. No, it is not.

In 2018, Modi took two informal visits. First to China & then, to Russia. Let me rephrase it. He went to China. Came back to Delhi and left for Moscow shortly. Well, ideally, it'd have been as a visit to Beijing first and then to Moscow without a hop to Delhi. But then, we know how it was done by MBS of Saudi Arabia decoupling India - Pakistan. So, treat this is first step by PM Modi to decouple Russia - China. These relationships would be separate and one would always be better than the other.

Post this visit, a few things happened. Most that appears in news is that of Galwan and Wuhan virus. Not much has been written about on how India parallels started to work on its relationship with Central Asia and International North South Transit corridor. This will in due course reduce Russian dependence on China. Or, how India supported Russia passively on international forums over Ukraine. Or, how India stood steadfast on its oil purchase from Russia when it was politically incorrect to do so.

Today there's no direct land route to Russia from India. Even in INSTC there's going to be a short hop from India to Iran via seas. But, that is all. No need for long land route to Russia via China. The Western part of China is what we are targeting as a market and that's where real power lies. Russian Far East is taken care of by well established shipping lines. One recently inaugurated from Chennai to Vladivostok. Also, sea lanes are not where China has a huge say. ASEAN has too. So does Japan and South Korea. There is not going to be a single large dependency there on PRC.

China on the other hand, never did anything like this openly. In fact, there have been high level visits of US officials to China in recent past. Not a single word uttered over China supporting Russia over Ukraine. Why then should India adhere by West's dictum?

The recent utterances of US Ambassador to India are in very bad taste to put it lightly. He was seen recently threatening India.. Or, are they the original Wolf Warriors? Unbecoming of a dipolmat. Same with NSA of US Jake Sullivan. His utterances on MSNBC recently speaks volumes on how US is rudderless yet with attitude in middle of ocean. Over time, US can well expect a "gracious ignore" & zero response / weightage from India to their behavior (like how India treats Pakistan and Canada), if they don't mend their ways.

There's something even Jake Sullivan should read about. When he says. "Russia will side with China over India any day of the week" I want to ask him back, you sure buddy?

US should realize that the scar of March 1969 is still alive with Russia. China's deed since then, on Russian Far East has ruffled feathers in Moscow.

Again, this could be a reaction to the "decoupling" that US didn't expect. Fact is, US doesn't want India to go away from Chinese threat. Instead, it wanted India to take US support to neutralize China. Now that India is seeking Russian passive support to tackle China, US is into panic mode. They can't imagine dealing with China on their own, without India's active participation.

Hypothetically, let's assume India wants to neutralize China, taking help of Russia. How would Russia be able to help? Well, even if Russia stays away from a future Sino-Indian conflict, China would be destroyed in a matter of weeks, if not days. In fact, Russia would have less enemies & more friends in Far-East, if it takes an anti-China stand. Token of this, is why Brahmos was sent to Philippines.

You see where this is going? Let me break it down. US wants India to be its ally. China doesn't want India to be Russia's friend more than itself. Russia would need India more than China and is clearly signaling it. China, can't ally with US except for treasury bonds. US wants to intervene in Tibet - with or without India's participation. If Russia works on limiting itself to transactional relationship with China, a lot of countries in South China Sea (formerly Champa sea) would not be anti-Russia.

US knows all this. Hence, the recent reports of investing in Indian opposition leader has begun. China too is doing its bit. Clever by half. Trying to punch a hole into top leadership. Wang Yi spoke to India's NSA Ajit Doval to "properly handle" issues. Wang thinks, he is capable of driving wedge between NSA Ajit Doval and EAM Dr S Jaishankar. God bless him. The very fact Wang is forced to speak to Ajit Doval is because, EAM has eaten him already. But then, there's this thing about India. It is a democracy. It can't be destroyed wholly. 

Since 2014, India has tackled China & the threat imposed by it in a detailed way to a point of no return. Without any help of US / West. A short list. CPEC is gone for a toss. Gwadar is limping. No further investments. China's strategic partner against India, Pakistan is no more capable to fight India. It is dealing with TTP and Taliban. China thought Taliban would support Pakistan. It fell apart. Taliban is actually helping India, passively. Chinese string of pearls against India are falling apart. It'll fall apart fully in a couple of years. Bangladesh is now not playing the ball with China. PM Hasina has cut short her trip to Beijing.

In all this, Russia is silent. At the very least, Russia could have asked for Gwadar - Chahbahar cooperation. But, they didn't. In fact, it is surprising that Russia didn't block sale of Brahmos to Philippines by India. As it would most likely be used against China. If not officially, they could have asked for it unofficially. But, they didn't. 

Probably, this is Russian way of signaling that China is turning out to be a loser in long term. And are actually seeing India as a worthy partner. So, in the coming months and years, we'd see INSTC kicking into life and so would Russian Far East. Both would be connected to ASEAN and Asia - without China and Pakistan. Many equations might change in South China Sea (formerly Champa Sea) as well.

All this means, the decoupling would be upgraded and picked up by other countries.

Securing India's frontiers - Afghanistan

    Pic Source: military.wikia.org

A series of interlinked & possible scenarios in the coming weeks, months & years through this decade. Of course, this post is limited through publicly available information & hence, not dependent on all moving parts of the geopolitical machinery. Am not writing anything that is not available in public domain.

Few days ago, there was a breaking news. "US vacates Bagram Air Base outside Kabul" To many this is just news that day. What followed was a literally shameful runaway leaving equipment, radars and about 700 vehicles. Worst, they didn't even tell their Afghan counterparts that they're leaving. They just left switching off even the power. Yes, THEY JUST LEFT said local General of ASDF in an interview to WION. This is just running away from battlefield. A perfect defeatist posture, that Taliban wanted from day 1. After about 19 years of bloodshed.

A strange coincidence. Vietnam war lasted little over 19 years. As if history is repeating itself, an equally shameful defeat in Afghanistan for United States is coming up after 19 years of bloodshed. With the act of running away from Afghanistan, US has made sure of one thing. Forcing its allies to talk to Taliban - worst human rights abusers. On second thoughts, US might have just bettered Taliban, that has forced people in Afghanistan to side with Taliban than an elected Afghan Government. (Atleast as per some western media reports). Just pointing how badly a war is fought without a strategy or an objective. Least of all, achieving peace was never in mind. From the start, the very condescending attitude towards local culture was evident and one could say that US would lose the war within days after the fall of Taliban in Kabul.

US lost Afghanistan for just two reasons. First, just like in Vietnam, US won every battle in Afghanistan. But ultimately lost the war. Marines and machines don't win wars. It is maturity that does. You think, rolling tanks into villages would achieve peace in any part of the world. It won't work. US lost the battle that day itself. Secondly, people of Afghanistan are basically tired of war. They need a safe & quality life / future. No bullets. People like Amarullah Saleh, Hashmat Ghani & Atta Nasib should have been given a better role politically - for a few years now. Instead, US tried their best chances with people like Abdullah Abdullah. God bless them.

Securing Afghanistan is very important for the region. India seems to have realized this & started its moves from long ago. Recollect those umpteen visits by the then EAM Sushma Swaraj (I miss her!) and her successor EAM Jaishankar. They seem to have read the act that is coming up for Afghanistan in US. At the time of writing this, rumor is that many warlords have fled to Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. There are also rumors that Taliban is turning against their protector - Pakistani ISI - all along. This change in stance seems to have come after the recent DOUBLE Qatar visits (in June 2021) of EAM Jaishankar. We're indeed talking to the Taliban. Think of Muttawakil type in Delhi! But then, do we have a choice? We're pushed into it by US & West anyways.

As mentioned above, we're forced to talk to Taliban by US now. If not, we'd be faced with a deadly combo of Taliban and a failed state in Pakistan. Funny as it might sound. But back then it used to be said that a stable Pakistan is necessary for a stable Afghanistan. Now, for Pakistan to be safely dismantled we need to keep them busy with Taliban. Or should I say, keep Taliban busy & reduce them to rubble?

On the other hand, the "talks" with Taliban is a win-win for India. Because, it is Taliban who need Indian monetary & political support than we need them. We can have "some" leverage in Afghanistan through Taliban. Better than having none. What if Taliban goes against India in future? Well, don't you think, the visits to Central Asian Countries would have some reason? I leave it at that.

Per western media reports, Taliban is conquering village after village & district after district. But reality is, they're attacking outposts in those places. Yet to see the real deal. Let me give a teaser. The geography of some regions of Afghanistan is such, that it is very difficult to keep supply lines constantly open. Yes, there is a reason why 1000s of Afghan troops crossed into Tajikistan. But, it is not end of road for Afghanistan. By spreading thin, Taliban is risking its very existence. Sending a couple of Toyata Hilux with 10 mercenaries in each pick-up into streets don't make them victor. They need to face real bullets - which will definitely come in the coming days and weeks and months. Let's see if they hold on to it. So, don't fall for the mirage that media is creating that Taliban is winning. They're nowhere close to winning. Even if they do, it is very hard to sustain it. Rookies don't have a place there anymore.

Taliban should not live in la la land. A counterattack WILL come. Afghan Army would not go down without a tough fight. Some media reports do refer to this. If things get worse, some provinces / districts in Northern Afghanistan would see bloody clash. It would be like Northern Syria for sometime. Push would be from two sides for them this time. With US nowhere near them, CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) from Tajikistan side would give a push too. Enter Russia in the scenario. Did you see videos of tank movements from Siberia to Western Regions past few days? Well, relate to this.

IF things turn bloody in Northern Afghanistan, only two possibilities: Either Taliban rookies would be decimated. Or, would be contained to such an extent that they'd surrender themselves. Afghans are basically going to reclaim their land eitherways.

With Afghan threat contained, we come to Pakistan.

The very reason a state like Pakistan should exist should be questioned on three points: Logically, Economically & Strategically. 1) Are they self-sustainable & economically sound? No. They are begging for loans with every single country they meet - even on sidelines of Global events. With a lot of these events going virtual, they are hit quite bad without these sidelines happening. 2) Are they sticking to their reasons basis which they became a 'nation'? No. Had they been, Bangladesh would not have been lost. What is the solution then? Well, let them implode. Next chapter shall follow later. But, let there be no doubt. This would be initiated by India. Let there be no doubt, Pakistan would be dismantled.

The other aspect is, how we operate. When you can see us talking to Taliban, have you noticed how we're talking to Taliban's adversaries too? Likewise, for India to be safe and secure, we need equally secure energy supplies. Here's where we have played well with our options & worked with our strategic partners.

Aftermath:

Recently, there was a discussion at OPEC+. UAE and Saudi fought over a increasing few million barrels of oil. Standoff continues to this day. Possibility being speculated is that UAE might exit OPEC as analyzed by energyintel.com first. Now, being picked up by CNBC. US is trying to broker a peace deal. Why? Petro-dollar economy would crash, if OPEC falls apart. The ramifications of this, would be stark and not easy to see. Many don't want to see this either.

The region has started to prepare for the aftermath of Afghanistan. UAE Deputy Prime Minister and Iran Envoy to UAE discuss "cooperation". Whether this is regarding act in OPEC / OPEC+ or with reference to regional security issues is to be seen. Not much is given in this news report. But, what is surprising is, within 24 hours, Indian External Affairs Minister lands in Tehran and gets audience with no less than the new Iranian President. This is nothing less than a surprise. Such visits don't happen just like that.

Why is this landing in Tehran important? Well, for two reasons: 1) Indian EAM has visited Qatar and has channels Larger picture is that, Indian Minister landed in Tehran while on his way to Moscow. Which is to work on two flanks of Indian security that are under stress.

Russia and UAE are key partners. Russia is predominantly a "counter-balance" for unipolar worldview of US & China in the region. UAE helps with anti-Radical front in the region & that for the world.

An informed guess makes one anticipate possible futureevents due to US actions in Afghanistan: 

1. An exit from Iraq.

2. Ditching of allies in Pacific to defend themselves. Which will enable China to go hyper-aggressive in Asia & even may attempt the Taiwan act. Australia should rise up to the occasion if it happens.

3. China is being stretched to the maximum already. It'll be further weakened by stretching further and a battle in the Pacific Ocean would only worsen their status.

4. It is better if China doesn't attempt any foolish moves before Beijing Olympics 2022. Zhongnanhai knows reasons well.

5. Russia is already talking to partners in ASEAN. Russian FM Lavrov was in Laos.

Conclusion:
With many such events, we are in for very interesting months. A lot is happening far behind limelight. So, Taliban is not winning anything. If at all, it is losing and taking Pakistan with it. Don't fall for cheap western propaganda of NYT type media houses. They even gave space to Taliban for Op-Eds.

Will write another post detailing each of the above mentioned "expected events" and reasons.