India - Russia Relationship: Decoupling China

Source: BIIA.com

In 2014, when PM Modi took oath, he invited leaders of neighboring countries for the swearing-in ceremony. It was unexpected. Most likely sure Foreign Ministry officials would have gone into panic mode. But then, it was worth it. It did send out an important signal. That, this is new administration and would mean business. There has been a significant change in relationship since then. Multiple facets did shape this. But one thing stands out. Some traditional compulsions have been broken.

To start with, India has strived to break the way it deals with China and has signaled clearly that it sees China different from the way it sees Russia. In other words, India doesn't see China at par with Russia and that Russia is a more trusted ally which has stood test of times unlike China.

Why is this important? Well, because unlike West which sees China and Russia alike, we see the finer details and dwell deep into it.

Since 2014, there has been one buzzword "Decoupling". When it comes to this administration's foreign policy, the most underrated policy are "Decoupling" for "strategic independence". This has helped us to stay away from most of the troubled waters.

For example, we explained this "decoupling" of relations to our friends and made sure they don't let us & use Pakistan in same plane. So much so that when Saudi Crown Prince was to visit India, he went to Riyadh for a short hop after his Pakistan visit and returned to Delhi within hours. Over the last few years, this has started to deliver results. In the minds of Pakistani leadership and the people in general, it has now been registered that India is not even considering Pakistan as a rival and that India is miles ahead in various aspects as a Nation. From Digital payments to education to poverty alleviation. Today, people of Pakistan are speaking of how a country as big as India is excelling in service delivery without corruption.

Likewise, the decoupling of relationship with Russia and that of China while being a member of Russia - India - China & Shanghai Cooperation Organization on one side. And that of QUAD on the other. This has enabled India to stand up and steer clear of someone else's war.

Steadily, we are gaining our "strategic independence" to be able to contribute to providing solutions to world's much ignored & vulnerable Global South. For example, providing vaccines during pandemic & that of purchasing Russian oil.

So, this is now being applied for India - China relationship too. All along, people thought of China and Russia as two communist countries with similar aspirations. This decoupling by India would soon debunk the assumption that China is Russia's friend. No, it is not.

In 2018, Modi took two informal visits. First to China & then, to Russia. Let me rephrase it. He went to China. Came back to Delhi and left for Moscow shortly. Well, ideally, it'd have been as a visit to Beijing first and then to Moscow without a hop to Delhi. But then, we know how it was done by MBS of Saudi Arabia decoupling India - Pakistan. So, treat this is first step by PM Modi to decouple Russia - China. These relationships would be separate and one would always be better than the other.

Post this visit, a few things happened. Most that appears in news is that of Galwan and Wuhan virus. Not much has been written about on how India parallels started to work on its relationship with Central Asia and International North South Transit corridor. This will in due course reduce Russian dependence on China. Or, how India supported Russia passively on international forums over Ukraine. Or, how India stood steadfast on its oil purchase from Russia when it was politically incorrect to do so.

Today there's no direct land route to Russia from India. Even in INSTC there's going to be a short hop from India to Iran via seas. But, that is all. No need for long land route to Russia via China. The Western part of China is what we are targeting as a market and that's where real power lies. Russian Far East is taken care of by well established shipping lines. One recently inaugurated from Chennai to Vladivostok. Also, sea lanes are not where China has a huge say. ASEAN has too. So does Japan and South Korea. There is not going to be a single large dependency there on PRC.

China on the other hand, never did anything like this openly. In fact, there have been high level visits of US officials to China in recent past. Not a single word uttered over China supporting Russia over Ukraine. Why then should India adhere by West's dictum?

The recent utterances of US Ambassador to India are in very bad taste to put it lightly. He was seen recently threatening India.. Or, are they the original Wolf Warriors? Unbecoming of a dipolmat. Same with NSA of US Jake Sullivan. His utterances on MSNBC recently speaks volumes on how US is rudderless yet with attitude in middle of ocean. Over time, US can well expect a "gracious ignore" & zero response / weightage from India to their behavior (like how India treats Pakistan and Canada), if they don't mend their ways.

There's something even Jake Sullivan should read about. When he says. "Russia will side with China over India any day of the week" I want to ask him back, you sure buddy?

US should realize that the scar of March 1969 is still alive with Russia. China's deed since then, on Russian Far East has ruffled feathers in Moscow.

Again, this could be a reaction to the "decoupling" that US didn't expect. Fact is, US doesn't want India to go away from Chinese threat. Instead, it wanted India to take US support to neutralize China. Now that India is seeking Russian passive support to tackle China, US is into panic mode. They can't imagine dealing with China on their own, without India's active participation.

Hypothetically, let's assume India wants to neutralize China, taking help of Russia. How would Russia be able to help? Well, even if Russia stays away from a future Sino-Indian conflict, China would be destroyed in a matter of weeks, if not days. In fact, Russia would have less enemies & more friends in Far-East, if it takes an anti-China stand. Token of this, is why Brahmos was sent to Philippines.

You see where this is going? Let me break it down. US wants India to be its ally. China doesn't want India to be Russia's friend more than itself. Russia would need India more than China and is clearly signaling it. China, can't ally with US except for treasury bonds. US wants to intervene in Tibet - with or without India's participation. If Russia works on limiting itself to transactional relationship with China, a lot of countries in South China Sea (formerly Champa sea) would not be anti-Russia.

US knows all this. Hence, the recent reports of investing in Indian opposition leader has begun. China too is doing its bit. Clever by half. Trying to punch a hole into top leadership. Wang Yi spoke to India's NSA Ajit Doval to "properly handle" issues. Wang thinks, he is capable of driving wedge between NSA Ajit Doval and EAM Dr S Jaishankar. God bless him. The very fact Wang is forced to speak to Ajit Doval is because, EAM has eaten him already. But then, there's this thing about India. It is a democracy. It can't be destroyed wholly. 

Since 2014, India has tackled China & the threat imposed by it in a detailed way to a point of no return. Without any help of US / West. A short list. CPEC is gone for a toss. Gwadar is limping. No further investments. China's strategic partner against India, Pakistan is no more capable to fight India. It is dealing with TTP and Taliban. China thought Taliban would support Pakistan. It fell apart. Taliban is actually helping India, passively. Chinese string of pearls against India are falling apart. It'll fall apart fully in a couple of years. Bangladesh is now not playing the ball with China. PM Hasina has cut short her trip to Beijing.

In all this, Russia is silent. At the very least, Russia could have asked for Gwadar - Chahbahar cooperation. But, they didn't. In fact, it is surprising that Russia didn't block sale of Brahmos to Philippines by India. As it would most likely be used against China. If not officially, they could have asked for it unofficially. But, they didn't. 

Probably, this is Russian way of signaling that China is turning out to be a loser in long term. And are actually seeing India as a worthy partner. So, in the coming months and years, we'd see INSTC kicking into life and so would Russian Far East. Both would be connected to ASEAN and Asia - without China and Pakistan. Many equations might change in South China Sea (formerly Champa Sea) as well.

All this means, the decoupling would be upgraded and picked up by other countries.

Securing India's frontiers - Afghanistan

    Pic Source: military.wikia.org

A series of interlinked & possible scenarios in the coming weeks, months & years through this decade. Of course, this post is limited through publicly available information & hence, not dependent on all moving parts of the geopolitical machinery. Am not writing anything that is not available in public domain.

Few days ago, there was a breaking news. "US vacates Bagram Air Base outside Kabul" To many this is just news that day. What followed was a literally shameful runaway leaving equipment, radars and about 700 vehicles. Worst, they didn't even tell their Afghan counterparts that they're leaving. They just left switching off even the power. Yes, THEY JUST LEFT said local General of ASDF in an interview to WION. This is just running away from battlefield. A perfect defeatist posture, that Taliban wanted from day 1. After about 19 years of bloodshed.

A strange coincidence. Vietnam war lasted little over 19 years. As if history is repeating itself, an equally shameful defeat in Afghanistan for United States is coming up after 19 years of bloodshed. With the act of running away from Afghanistan, US has made sure of one thing. Forcing its allies to talk to Taliban - worst human rights abusers. On second thoughts, US might have just bettered Taliban, that has forced people in Afghanistan to side with Taliban than an elected Afghan Government. (Atleast as per some western media reports). Just pointing how badly a war is fought without a strategy or an objective. Least of all, achieving peace was never in mind. From the start, the very condescending attitude towards local culture was evident and one could say that US would lose the war within days after the fall of Taliban in Kabul.

US lost Afghanistan for just two reasons. First, just like in Vietnam, US won every battle in Afghanistan. But ultimately lost the war. Marines and machines don't win wars. It is maturity that does. You think, rolling tanks into villages would achieve peace in any part of the world. It won't work. US lost the battle that day itself. Secondly, people of Afghanistan are basically tired of war. They need a safe & quality life / future. No bullets. People like Amarullah Saleh, Hashmat Ghani & Atta Nasib should have been given a better role politically - for a few years now. Instead, US tried their best chances with people like Abdullah Abdullah. God bless them.

Securing Afghanistan is very important for the region. India seems to have realized this & started its moves from long ago. Recollect those umpteen visits by the then EAM Sushma Swaraj (I miss her!) and her successor EAM Jaishankar. They seem to have read the act that is coming up for Afghanistan in US. At the time of writing this, rumor is that many warlords have fled to Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. There are also rumors that Taliban is turning against their protector - Pakistani ISI - all along. This change in stance seems to have come after the recent DOUBLE Qatar visits (in June 2021) of EAM Jaishankar. We're indeed talking to the Taliban. Think of Muttawakil type in Delhi! But then, do we have a choice? We're pushed into it by US & West anyways.

As mentioned above, we're forced to talk to Taliban by US now. If not, we'd be faced with a deadly combo of Taliban and a failed state in Pakistan. Funny as it might sound. But back then it used to be said that a stable Pakistan is necessary for a stable Afghanistan. Now, for Pakistan to be safely dismantled we need to keep them busy with Taliban. Or should I say, keep Taliban busy & reduce them to rubble?

On the other hand, the "talks" with Taliban is a win-win for India. Because, it is Taliban who need Indian monetary & political support than we need them. We can have "some" leverage in Afghanistan through Taliban. Better than having none. What if Taliban goes against India in future? Well, don't you think, the visits to Central Asian Countries would have some reason? I leave it at that.

Per western media reports, Taliban is conquering village after village & district after district. But reality is, they're attacking outposts in those places. Yet to see the real deal. Let me give a teaser. The geography of some regions of Afghanistan is such, that it is very difficult to keep supply lines constantly open. Yes, there is a reason why 1000s of Afghan troops crossed into Tajikistan. But, it is not end of road for Afghanistan. By spreading thin, Taliban is risking its very existence. Sending a couple of Toyata Hilux with 10 mercenaries in each pick-up into streets don't make them victor. They need to face real bullets - which will definitely come in the coming days and weeks and months. Let's see if they hold on to it. So, don't fall for the mirage that media is creating that Taliban is winning. They're nowhere close to winning. Even if they do, it is very hard to sustain it. Rookies don't have a place there anymore.

Taliban should not live in la la land. A counterattack WILL come. Afghan Army would not go down without a tough fight. Some media reports do refer to this. If things get worse, some provinces / districts in Northern Afghanistan would see bloody clash. It would be like Northern Syria for sometime. Push would be from two sides for them this time. With US nowhere near them, CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) from Tajikistan side would give a push too. Enter Russia in the scenario. Did you see videos of tank movements from Siberia to Western Regions past few days? Well, relate to this.

IF things turn bloody in Northern Afghanistan, only two possibilities: Either Taliban rookies would be decimated. Or, would be contained to such an extent that they'd surrender themselves. Afghans are basically going to reclaim their land eitherways.

With Afghan threat contained, we come to Pakistan.

The very reason a state like Pakistan should exist should be questioned on three points: Logically, Economically & Strategically. 1) Are they self-sustainable & economically sound? No. They are begging for loans with every single country they meet - even on sidelines of Global events. With a lot of these events going virtual, they are hit quite bad without these sidelines happening. 2) Are they sticking to their reasons basis which they became a 'nation'? No. Had they been, Bangladesh would not have been lost. What is the solution then? Well, let them implode. Next chapter shall follow later. But, let there be no doubt. This would be initiated by India. Let there be no doubt, Pakistan would be dismantled.

The other aspect is, how we operate. When you can see us talking to Taliban, have you noticed how we're talking to Taliban's adversaries too? Likewise, for India to be safe and secure, we need equally secure energy supplies. Here's where we have played well with our options & worked with our strategic partners.

Aftermath:

Recently, there was a discussion at OPEC+. UAE and Saudi fought over a increasing few million barrels of oil. Standoff continues to this day. Possibility being speculated is that UAE might exit OPEC as analyzed by energyintel.com first. Now, being picked up by CNBC. US is trying to broker a peace deal. Why? Petro-dollar economy would crash, if OPEC falls apart. The ramifications of this, would be stark and not easy to see. Many don't want to see this either.

The region has started to prepare for the aftermath of Afghanistan. UAE Deputy Prime Minister and Iran Envoy to UAE discuss "cooperation". Whether this is regarding act in OPEC / OPEC+ or with reference to regional security issues is to be seen. Not much is given in this news report. But, what is surprising is, within 24 hours, Indian External Affairs Minister lands in Tehran and gets audience with no less than the new Iranian President. This is nothing less than a surprise. Such visits don't happen just like that.

Why is this landing in Tehran important? Well, for two reasons: 1) Indian EAM has visited Qatar and has channels Larger picture is that, Indian Minister landed in Tehran while on his way to Moscow. Which is to work on two flanks of Indian security that are under stress.

Russia and UAE are key partners. Russia is predominantly a "counter-balance" for unipolar worldview of US & China in the region. UAE helps with anti-Radical front in the region & that for the world.

An informed guess makes one anticipate possible futureevents due to US actions in Afghanistan: 

1. An exit from Iraq.

2. Ditching of allies in Pacific to defend themselves. Which will enable China to go hyper-aggressive in Asia & even may attempt the Taiwan act. Australia should rise up to the occasion if it happens.

3. China is being stretched to the maximum already. It'll be further weakened by stretching further and a battle in the Pacific Ocean would only worsen their status.

4. It is better if China doesn't attempt any foolish moves before Beijing Olympics 2022. Zhongnanhai knows reasons well.

5. Russia is already talking to partners in ASEAN. Russian FM Lavrov was in Laos.

Conclusion:
With many such events, we are in for very interesting months. A lot is happening far behind limelight. So, Taliban is not winning anything. If at all, it is losing and taking Pakistan with it. Don't fall for cheap western propaganda of NYT type media houses. They even gave space to Taliban for Op-Eds.

Will write another post detailing each of the above mentioned "expected events" and reasons.

India, chooses its battles wisely in changing times

Pic Source: economictimes.indiatimes.com

India is changing. Ok, it is not a mere rhetoric. At the outset, this is not something you'd see daily for it to be thought of / realize. Promise, won't bore you with numbers & theorems. So, read fully before judging.

Peaceful international climate is a prized art. Can be made possible with just one master sculptor. India had that for thousands of years. Now, slowly we're claiming it back. Some thoughts on how things are moving in unseen wheels of change. Like wise, the battles that India has started too, is not about Military might (though it has one!) True to its ethos, India will use Military as only the last option.

Halal: Some weeks back, there was some issue with a food delivery company. It was organic. People took it up. But, during course of it, it was made clear that how it is not religion neutral at all. Halal, for example, is said to be employing staff belonging to one particular community. And now, McDonalds has joined the controversy in India. Saying, they only serve Halal. Now, people in India are now asking, why should we be forced to consume which we don't want to & why Jhatka is not available? Righly so.

Slowly & steadily eroding the practice of Jhatka meat (or any non-Halal meat processing) - which means, slowly & steadily one community is holding sway on the multi billion dollar meat industry. Now, think. This is not just in India. Halal is almost prevalent everywhere across the world. See the point?

Unknowingly, we've started to accommodate what a minuscule minority has imposed on us for their dominance. Now, the majority is just asking politically incorrect & logical questions. Can you imagine what will happen if the halal meat industry is hit big time, world over? Will discuss at the end about it.

RuPay: The push & pull of global economy always is from the nation which controls maximum money. Of others as well than just of its own especially. Right now, Master Card & Visa have been unquestionably dominant over decades on payment gateways. THAT China's Union Pay tried to break. Without much success, Union Pay did make a dent. The ultimate competition came from Digital payments from India with the launch of BHIM by NPCIL. Ever thought about paying in foreign countries using an entirely Indian product like RuPay Cards and BHIM? That's what has happened. What this means is that anyone can get it even outside India. Pay using BHIM / RuPay cards. UPI in major financial markets of Asia (Singapore, UAE) & oil market of Bahrain, Tourist destinations of Bhutan & Maldives (rings a Chinese gong?) This is just a start. India has plans to extend this to other markets. With Hong Kong facing trouble, money expected to move to Singapore, Seoul, Tokyo & Mumbai, this move is critical and timely.

I leave it to your research on the amount of money across the region will enter our payments gateway in Rupee and in other currencies, which will strengthen Rupee and India at a macro level.

Whoever thought about this approach to getting leverage / say in global economy. Hats off!

GCC: From being recipient awarded highest Civilian awards of Palestine, Afghanistan, Saudi, UAE & Bahrain. To the trust of a friend to getting ports for Navy in Oman to building a port in Iran to rescuing people in Yemen. Last but not the least, getting the warmth of the direct link of Islam - King Abdullah of Jordan. India has friends made quite good friends across the region. Why & how did this happen? Energy security in exchange for food security. You think, in normal circumstances it was even possible for us to get heard? We're not a member of the grouping even today, a country with largest number of Muslims.

Gulf countries have realized that radical Islam is real danger to their survival & they can't let it grow beyond a point even if it benefited them in the past. Let this thought gain more weight and let more people welcome it.

Renewables: Gulf nations are not only securing their oil for future use. But also investing heavily in renewable. The global push & pull for energy requirements will actually slowdown as many nations are expected to follow renewable route to energy self-reliance. Of course, all in the umberalla reason of saving Planet Earth & environment. You get it, right? :-)

With India moving towards either a fully electric or a hybrid ICE vehicle regime by 2025, it is surely going to help change a lot in current paradigm. Of course, it will have its own niggles, but that's okay for a long term betterment.

India's solar alliance, remember? It has nations from as far as Pacific island of Fiji to Solomon Islands to Bolivia in South America to Sri Lanka to Uganda, Gambia in Africa. Just to mention the reach. It is spread across the globe. Big & small. Do the math if 77 Countries of the world with France leading the initiative in EU. Japan helping with funding & technology. Ever imagined how this will dent the thriving war industry which is after energy rich nations & territories?

Terrorism: Next theater of terrorism & war on terror is not Arabian peninsula or Asia. It will be Europe. UAE in Persian Gulf is turning to sustainable terms of nation building & eradicating the evil of terrorism. Even Saudi's Crown Prince is talking about women's empowerment, eradicating radical elements from the region and religion. Afghanistan is already blaming Pakistan on the issues of terrorism. A destabilized Pakistan will only create another IS in the region. Which is not good for ANY of the stake holders - for at least 2000kms radius! Russia & China are doing their own way. While we in the immediate neighborhood need to be sure that we don't end up bearing the brunt.

Hence all the above steps are necessary. How?

A radical doesn't become radical on his own. The radical has support of political islam. Political Islam is the one which opposes anything opposed to religion of Islam. Meaning, they set the rules.

Ask the following questions:

Who imposed halal on non-halal markets?

How was hawala transactions done?

How much oil money flow into India for nefarious activities, without any data / metrics / measure / anyone monitoring it?

Now, that game has changed. Now what will a radical do when funds dry up? As of today, a radical is mostly from unorganized sector without job security & is working for meager wages with more than two kids. Living in poor quality life in ghettos. The entire economy of him & his family is outside the system. With this pace of digital payments, the move from cash less (also an option) to less cash (only as an option) will transpire swift expected. This also means, more people into the system / mainstay economy. No parallel economy. This will demolish the radicalist's economy. This is why there was a lot of noise during demonetization in India.

Discount the religion factor out. Just imagine the potential of a parallel economy that is possible by selling meat alone in a country as big as India through halal in almost every store (as there is no other choice!) with almost complete monopoly. This is where the hit has happened.

Do you notice a faster degradation of Pakistan Economy post-Demonetization? I am not saying it is due to DeMo. But, can it be a coincidence? Is Pakistan somewhere burning itself out to bring down India? Is it fighting a losing battle? Come what may, Pakistan won't exist beyond a point. It is already existing beyond its expiry date. With GCC moving closer to India than Pakistan & FATF threat looming, game is coming to a close for them.

More payments through our payment gateway, with our Income Tax Department & Government agencies closely watching the funding from abroad, it is gold mine of data & threats would be more swiftly acted upon. There is no other way out.

With concerted moves, India, chooses its battles wisely in changing times. Didn't fight all the battle thrown at it. It chose the battle it can win & put all the thrust in those places. Unlike China, which is almost everywhere & bulldozing, India is slowly steadily negotiating with stakeholders & settling things permanently. The soft power giant, has started a war without firing a single bullet which it aims to win as well, without firing one.

Let there be a peaceful world. Let radicals be wiped off, from this beautiful planet.

Jai Hind!

Modi win is opposition's foolishness

Pic source: GulfBusiness.com

Narendra Modi. The man who was hounded since 2002 for the aftermath of Godhra train burning attack / carnage till he became Prime Minister of India. Some even taunt that at him. But, wholesome credit goes to fantastic negative PR by media - free of cost. Why am I saying this now? Read on, you will know.

In the movie "The Insider" there's a scene when Don beats down Bergman in a war of words, makes a erroneous statement. Mike interrupts & corrects him. By saying those golden words: "Fame lasts 15mins, infamy lasts much longer." THAT, ladies & gentlemen, exactly what Modi did. He tried to beat the media in their own game. Through silence & capitalizing on misinformation. Think about it. What is the average duration of a news cycle? Depending on the news, it ranges from a few hours to few weeks. If it is of national importance, maybe a year or two. Which fool thought that they can sustain a news cycle for 15 long years? I mean, seriously? You think people are not educated enough to go & do their own research? Mistake #1: Underestimating collective intelligence of the people of an entire state of 5.5 Crores.

Fast forward to 2014. Media people didn't stop there. They went (down) on even further. Literally playing second fiddle to a section of polity in the Country. Little do they know they are being kept engaged in the battle so that Modi could win the war. (I will not divulge into it further, for obvious reasons.) From one issue to another they kept on teaming up with polity & were instrumental in spreading fake news, building fake narratives, making news where there is none actually, selectively playing up outrage that suits a particular ideology. They did it all. They were anything but neutral. They went behind fact checking posters, but felt it is not needed in bigger issues (like Rafale?) Mistake #2: Opposition kept itself busy in a battle perpetually without contributing anything at all, to winning a war.

The messaging. Opposition didn't stop itself to a large extent from going beyond criticizing Modi. The opposition crossed thin line almost on a regular basis. Modi capitalized it as well. By just not stopping them. Over time, thanks to free data, the noise the opposition made on politician Modi has turned against them & being seen as an anti-National narrative. Well, if you don't believe me, play a video of any opposition leader (from past 5yrs) to a person from rural India & ask him / her about it. You will know the reaction almost similar from Gujarat to Vijoynagar. Mistake #3: Crossing the line of criticizing Modi to turning anti-India interests.

Now, take a step back. Think. Name a single national leader who can oppose Modi skillfully, tactfully & effectively in Delhi as of today? Every single regional leader who had PM ambitions have been sent back to their home state and kept busy there. Was watching news today, Maratha strong man is ranting about EVMs, TN first family is spreading fake news on language. While visionary of AP, Behenji & her nephew are missing in action. Didi, these days is getting worked up far more frequently about a humble chant. Mind you, few weeks ago, these were the people whom media were propping as a Prime Ministerial Candidate. Just see the fall? Mistake #4: Placing wrong bets on wrong candidates.

Beyond cities, where one can often see anti-Modi narrative, hardly anything in rural India. People were more or less happy about what they get & were long prepared to re-elect Modi atleast a year before. Thanks to opposition parties, which failed to prove the scam & go to Courts. The Courts drubbing the opposition parties by saying that there is no scam in the deal was a final nail in the coffin. Some in Delhi may not believe, but in rural India, people still believe Courts & rule of Law. They go by the courts & not some activists. These activists have only damaged the credibility of opposition. Even today, open some print media & see the Op-Eds. Think. You think people are even believing what they're reading? Trust me, people are treating Op-Eds as WhatsApp forward with a name. Every line that is said there, is immediately googled & searched in twitter for facts about it. As of today, telling a lie itself is difficult. These activists are writing & printing it as well. How foolish? Do they even know people use Google? Mistake #5: Over dependency on activists & the fatal move to confront collective intelligence through a few handful of elites.


The next mistake is a biggest of them all. Which fool gave you the idea to confront a popular leader who won his own majority by using media & negative PR? Have you even learnt a lesson from Gujarat since 2002? By letting the media destroying credibility themselves, Modi directly started his connection with people. You may not find his schemes effective. But, didn't you notice the number of beneficiaries he created over 5yrs & how many ambassadors he had created by then? What Modi did was a masterstroke of sorts. Within a few days of taking oath, he started his Mann Ki Baat. Opposition laughed at him. But, guess what? All the intermediaries were getting eliminated & he genuinely made an attempt to connect with people. Have you ever noted the time when it was telecast? That too is significant. It is mostly telecast when people are at work. Why? Because, people listen to radio while at work & trust me - it hits your brain. The trust actually got embossed like in a rock on a PM by the citizens. You think throwing a stone at such a person at this moment when you have nothing to show with credibility that he is corrupt will work? You called bhakts. You mocked him. People thought that you are mocking them. Joke is on opposition here. Didn't the opposition see this wave? How come they kept on attacking PM when he is still going strong & ultimately ended up sustaining an anger on them for their sins? What has opposition done to regain their lost credibility over the last 15yrs? Mistake #6: Never launch an attack until you are ready or your opponent is weak.

Conclusion: This win by Modi is, as I see it, more an anger against opposition which it helped sustain by doing all sorts of foolish stuff. I refuse now to buy the usual "Modi is the only alternative" argument. Just because Rural India voted differently & have unmistakable trust on PM. As I see it, it will take three things to come back to power. a) Responsible opposition for next 10yrs. b) Responsible media which also publishes positive news on India. c) Stop doing foolish things until Modi himself leaves the seat as PM.

Guess what? All three will have to be satisfied which I don't see it happen for the next 20 yrs atleast.

Just in case if you didn't realize. I haven't even even once indicated / spoken about the demonetization, religion, surgical strike or any other factors termed as a success by people outside Lutyen's Delhi all along. The 6 mistakes mentioned above are good enough to make my point.

If you think, I enjoyed writing above fully? WRONG. It pains me to see such a fantastic country being taken down by a few opportunistic politicians. The 2 dozen politicians loitering in Lutyen's Delhi, from various parties who think it is them, who calls the shots - better think again. 2019 polls was more of a change that has hit them. It is people of this great rich country who have called the shot. The result was always a ticking time bomb for them. These two dozen people & a few dozen journalists & activists should be kept away from corridors of power by any party that wishes to come to power in the near future. As a democrat, I want a pro-India Opposition party in the first place. Right now I can't think of one. Sadly. I will celebrate only when that day comes. Am quite sure, I will see that day very soon.

Jai Hind!