Few days ago, there was a breaking news. "US vacates Bagram Air Base outside Kabul" To many this is just news that day. What followed was a literally shameful runaway leaving equipment, radars and about 700 vehicles. Worst, they didn't even tell their Afghan counterparts that they're leaving. They just left switching off even the power. Yes, THEY JUST LEFT said local General of ASDF in an interview to WION. This is just running away from battlefield. A perfect defeatist posture, that Taliban wanted from day 1. After about 19 years of bloodshed.
A strange coincidence. Vietnam war lasted little over 19 years. As if history is repeating itself, an equally shameful defeat in Afghanistan for United States is coming up after 19 years of bloodshed. With the act of running away from Afghanistan, US has made sure of one thing. Forcing its allies to talk to Taliban - worst human rights abusers. On second thoughts, US might have just bettered Taliban, that has forced people in Afghanistan to side with Taliban than an elected Afghan Government. (Atleast as per some western media reports). Just pointing how badly a war is fought without a strategy or an objective. Least of all, achieving peace was never in mind. From the start, the very condescending attitude towards local culture was evident and one could say that US would lose the war within days after the fall of Taliban in Kabul.
US lost Afghanistan for just two reasons. First, just like in Vietnam, US won every battle in Afghanistan. But ultimately lost the war. Marines and machines don't win wars. It is maturity that does. You think, rolling tanks into villages would achieve peace in any part of the world. It won't work. US lost the battle that day itself. Secondly, people of Afghanistan are basically tired of war. They need a safe & quality life / future. No bullets. People like Amarullah Saleh, Hashmat Ghani & Atta Nasib should have been given a better role politically - for a few years now. Instead, US tried their best chances with people like Abdullah Abdullah. God bless them.
Securing Afghanistan is very important for the region. India seems to have realized this & started its moves from long ago. Recollect those umpteen visits by the then EAM Sushma Swaraj (I miss her!) and her successor EAM Jaishankar. They seem to have read the act that is coming up for Afghanistan in US. At the time of writing this, rumor is that many warlords have fled to Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. There are also rumors that Taliban is turning against their protector - Pakistani ISI - all along. This change in stance seems to have come after the recent DOUBLE Qatar visits (in June 2021) of EAM Jaishankar. We're indeed talking to the Taliban. Think of Muttawakil type in Delhi! But then, do we have a choice? We're pushed into it by US & West anyways.
As mentioned above, we're forced to talk to Taliban by US now. If not, we'd be faced with a deadly combo of Taliban and a failed state in Pakistan. Funny as it might sound. But back then it used to be said that a stable Pakistan is necessary for a stable Afghanistan. Now, for Pakistan to be safely dismantled we need to keep them busy with Taliban. Or should I say, keep Taliban busy & reduce them to rubble?
On the other hand, the "talks" with Taliban is a win-win for India. Because, it is Taliban who need Indian monetary & political support than we need them. We can have "some" leverage in Afghanistan through Taliban. Better than having none. What if Taliban goes against India in future? Well, don't you think, the visits to Central Asian Countries would have some reason? I leave it at that.
Per western media reports, Taliban is conquering village after village & district after district. But reality is, they're attacking outposts in those places. Yet to see the real deal. Let me give a teaser. The geography of some regions of Afghanistan is such, that it is very difficult to keep supply lines constantly open. Yes, there is a reason why 1000s of Afghan troops crossed into Tajikistan. But, it is not end of road for Afghanistan. By spreading thin, Taliban is risking its very existence. Sending a couple of Toyata Hilux with 10 mercenaries in each pick-up into streets don't make them victor. They need to face real bullets - which will definitely come in the coming days and weeks and months. Let's see if they hold on to it. So, don't fall for the mirage that media is creating that Taliban is winning. They're nowhere close to winning. Even if they do, it is very hard to sustain it. Rookies don't have a place there anymore.
Taliban should not live in la la land. A counterattack WILL come. Afghan Army would not go down without a tough fight. Some media reports do refer to this. If things get worse, some provinces / districts in Northern Afghanistan would see bloody clash. It would be like Northern Syria for sometime. Push would be from two sides for them this time. With US nowhere near them, CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) from Tajikistan side would give a push too. Enter Russia in the scenario. Did you see videos of tank movements from Siberia to Western Regions past few days? Well, relate to this.
IF things turn bloody in Northern Afghanistan, only two possibilities: Either Taliban rookies would be decimated. Or, would be contained to such an extent that they'd surrender themselves. Afghans are basically going to reclaim their land eitherways.
With Afghan threat contained, we come to Pakistan.
The very reason a state like Pakistan should exist should be questioned on three points: Logically, Economically & Strategically. 1) Are they self-sustainable & economically sound? No. They are begging for loans with every single country they meet - even on sidelines of Global events. With a lot of these events going virtual, they are hit quite bad without these sidelines happening. 2) Are they sticking to their reasons basis which they became a 'nation'? No. Had they been, Bangladesh would not have been lost. What is the solution then? Well, let them implode. Next chapter shall follow later. But, let there be no doubt. This would be initiated by India. Let there be no doubt, Pakistan would be dismantled.
The other aspect is, how we operate. When you can see us talking to Taliban, have you noticed how we're talking to Taliban's adversaries too? Likewise, for India to be safe and secure, we need equally secure energy supplies. Here's where we have played well with our options & worked with our strategic partners.
Aftermath:
Recently, there was a discussion at OPEC+. UAE and Saudi fought over a increasing few million barrels of oil. Standoff continues to this day. Possibility being speculated is that UAE might exit OPEC as analyzed by energyintel.com first. Now, being picked up by CNBC. US is trying to broker a peace deal. Why? Petro-dollar economy would crash, if OPEC falls apart. The ramifications of this, would be stark and not easy to see. Many don't want to see this either.
The region has started to prepare for the aftermath of Afghanistan. UAE Deputy Prime Minister and Iran Envoy to UAE discuss "cooperation". Whether this is regarding act in OPEC / OPEC+ or with reference to regional security issues is to be seen. Not much is given in this news report. But, what is surprising is, within 24 hours, Indian External Affairs Minister lands in Tehran and gets audience with no less than the new Iranian President. This is nothing less than a surprise. Such visits don't happen just like that.
Why is this landing in Tehran important? Well, for two reasons: 1) Indian EAM has visited Qatar and has channels Larger picture is that, Indian Minister landed in Tehran while on his way to Moscow. Which is to work on two flanks of Indian security that are under stress.
Russia and UAE are key partners. Russia is predominantly a "counter-balance" for unipolar worldview of US & China in the region. UAE helps with anti-Radical front in the region & that for the world.
With many such events, we are in for very interesting months. A lot is happening far behind limelight. So, Taliban is not winning anything. If at all, it is losing and taking Pakistan with it. Don't fall for cheap western propaganda of NYT type media houses. They even gave space to Taliban for Op-Eds.
Will write another post detailing each of the above mentioned "expected events" and reasons.