Pic source: Wiki
An unstructured commentary on developments in the extended neighborhood in Indo-Pacific Region. Let us take a few key countries.
Frank Bainimarama, especially is key to the pivot on Pacific Island race that is going on. The race is about how to get more of these island nations on their side of the game. The game is between China and US backed allies. Led by Republic of China (Taiwan) and Australia. With India entering the scene, I think, there's more to this. Indian PM's visit to Fiji in 2014 is a milestone and subsequent changes in polity of Fiji is worth mentioning. Why so? Because, Modi & Bainimarama did something unexpected. Invited Heads of State of all 14 Pacific Island nations, for formation of "Forum for India and Pacific Island Countries (FIPIC)" based on India's Africa engagement success story. Constant followup made further improvements. The 2017 India and Pacific Islands Development Conference, for instance.
UPDATE: Australia approaches UN over claims over South China Sea. In its petition to the UN, Australia rejects China’s “historical claims” in the SCS since they violate international law & the UN's Law of the Sea Australia is also the first country outside the South China Sea region to approach the UN on China’s claims. Read more here.
Must watch / read references:
Australia
If you think, India has done well in correcting mistakes of the past with decisive steps with long term strategic goals as pivot. Think again. My impartial view is, Australia is equally better. They've done quite well in a short term & in a structured way.
Would you believe, if I tell you, it is nothing short of miracle, that a country as big as Australia escaped by a whisker from clutches of China. It was a 360° assault on Sovereignty. Now This may sound a hype or even a myth. But, that's what quite happened. Let me give you a few key pointers without going into the details.
China was in the midst of making Australia (!!??) as their vassal - just as they were trying with India. Why would they do that? Very simple answer is, it is always good to have two large democracies as vassal of an authoritarian regime to get all their 'acts' validated in the region. The proverbial, "plausible deniability" would be much easier if you have democracies by their side. China can always make the argument, "Hey, but free and fair democracies in the region support our actions."
Now that we know the motive, does it end here, what is the ultimate goal? By sending thousands of students every year to Australian universities, China has also tried to influence students from other countries who study in those very universities. Mind you, these other country students include those from India, Singapore & Pacific islands. These students come from either poor or upper-middle class families. Quite humble souls. They're there to just to study & go about their business. By sending in more numbers per university, Chinese students were always more in number & roam around in one pack, than those from free thinking democracies who are tough to gel as one pack. This started something what I call, "the inflicted Stockholm syndrome" artificially. To such an extent that recently, an Indian professor invited severe backlash from Chinese students when he referred to Taiwan. Yes, this happen. Some reports were out on China has been stealing research papers from universities & sending them back to China. I leave it to you to do research on how politicians funded by China have a hold on Australian Universities.
Does it end with colleges? No. This goes to workplace and work environment there too. And then, this extended into precious real-estate & military / strategic interests in Pacific Island family. The scale was enormous and did drag attention after ruffling a few feathers.
I feel, it is in this context that Indo-Pacific was actually born. Mainly to thwart the advancing Chinese wedge. You know, the good thing about the wedge? It has to be driven in a particular angle. Chinese have made a wedge. But they are slapping it against the wood. Which won't break the wood! Similarly, they are aggressive diplomatically. But, no one is sure on military. Here, China's adversaries have already started preparing since 2016. Long before China woke up & was busy regulating tourists to countries basis their 'quota' - from Maldives to Australia to Africa. (Trivia: Yes, tourists spending is part of every deal signed by China with every other country as part of BRI. Open source, you can research. It will require one more post on Chinese tourists.)
Game began in 2015. World was changing. Japan had Abe entering 3rd term. India had a change of guard with PM Modi at the helm. Scott Morrison as Federal Treasurer was getting strict with Chinese. Cancelling some key deals with Chinese in sight. Two key ones worth mentioning would be: 1) Blocking an Ausgrid project linked to Pine Gap. 2) Blocking sale of S. Kidman and Co.
A special thanks to ASD / ASIO & FIRB officials for stopping such key asset bids / sale to China. Even PM Turnbull wasn't confident of going forward with the recommendations and feared that there'd be a backlash from China. (Widely covered in media.)
Meanwhile, politics played its part & Treasurer Scott Morrison becomes PM Scott Morrison. Blessing in disguise. All along, security cooperation with countries in the region had started - albeit as a soft-launch with India, US & Japan. Australia is still not part of QUAD - militarily. As much, I'd welcome Australia's participation, the threat of China infested security apparatus is still significant. The cleanup is going to take some time & rightly so. Am sure, with the "2020 Defence Strategic Update" - which is a formal roadmap backed up with funds worth A$270 Bn. That's 40% increase of what the "strategic review 2016" promised A$195Bn.
Few weeks ago, China stopped food imports from Australia. And was hoping someone else could sell it to them. This is no loss for Australia. Any purchase from half-way around the globe would invite serious logistical issue in case of war. What would happen when food is getting choked is anyone's guess.
Fast forward mid-July 2020. With such aggressive Chinese moves and the infamous 'chewing gum' comment by Global Times, the process has only got more momentum and motivation to move away from China.
Needless to say, this opportunity will definitely be used by QUAD. There are unconfirmed reports in Indian media that, India plans to invite Australia to join the annual Malabar naval exercise. Hopefully, this time, it would be for real and complete. For it is Australia which can help us create a 'bridge' with Pacific Islands along with Fiji.
Fiji
Fiji
Frank Bainimarama, especially is key to the pivot on Pacific Island race that is going on. The race is about how to get more of these island nations on their side of the game. The game is between China and US backed allies. Led by Republic of China (Taiwan) and Australia. With India entering the scene, I think, there's more to this. Indian PM's visit to Fiji in 2014 is a milestone and subsequent changes in polity of Fiji is worth mentioning. Why so? Because, Modi & Bainimarama did something unexpected. Invited Heads of State of all 14 Pacific Island nations, for formation of "Forum for India and Pacific Island Countries (FIPIC)" based on India's Africa engagement success story. Constant followup made further improvements. The 2017 India and Pacific Islands Development Conference, for instance.
Tuvalu, Samoa and few other are flipping more than often between China & Democratic nations. Wrong. They should stand with free world and do the right thing. Rest of the world should do all that is possible to stop these small nations falling into the debt trap of China. Unsustainable amounts of monies to these countries would make them colonies of China once & for all. The line should be drawn to stop China far before it leaves shores of Mainland China.
Philippines
Another key partner in this anti-China coalition that is building up, is Philippines. In 2016, Philippines won the ruling in Permanent Court of Arbitration. Until July 12th 2020, Philippines was seen going slow / soft on the ruling. Which emboldened China in its rogue attitude and honing skills of Wolf-warrior diplomacy. Ultimately leading to a failure today. As Philippines did a U-turn on this issue which could dent China's claims in South China Sea. Manila said today that it is not willing to compromise on 2016 ruling. Few days ago, Manila also made another statement. That, India is interested in navigating South China Sea.
Guam (United States)
In 2018, there were some movement about Indian Armed Forces (Airforce & Navy) in Indo-Pacific region. Especially, expansion of its role in Pacific. It was widely reported too. Then, it went out of news cycle. Probably put into backburner. Thanks to China & its arrogance, this re-appeared in last week of June 2020. Now, news is that US is planning to introduce National Defense Authorization Act for 2021. This would now enable Fighter Jet training in Guam, for detachments from Australia, India & Japan.
Chile
On South Pacific, India is doing something very interesting. It is leveraging age old ties with Chile to help counter China. Chile, in all probabilities would be India's pivot to Latin America. The PM Modi - President Pinera meeting of August 2019 might have played well, I guess. October 2019, Chile Announces Cancellation of 2019 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit. (That it was a surprise for US is a different story.) Now, fast-forward to April 2020, after being hit badly with China Virus, Chile & Latin American countries in the larger context are moving away from China. Probably, the meeting of August helped Chile sense what is coming for China even before the pandemic. China's fall was written on the wall. Pandemic, just made it faster.
Some news from Chile, on how Indian Private & State owned Arms Manufacturers are preferring Chile. Indo-Russian JV Brahmos is also invited, is additional story. That means, a bell must have rung. For us, Chile is a pivot for larger South American continent. Hope to see more joint efforts. Wish the participation of Indian Navy in EXPONAVAL 2020 things would move to next level of cooperation. Hopefully, expect more developments in this regard.
Thanks to China Virus, Democracies have got a golden opportunity to wake up to crude reality & achieve world peace through non-coercive actions based on logic & justice. I am hoping to see a day when Pacific Island nations, Australia, South Korea & Japan - along with India, be part of an unsinkable coalition across Indo-Pacific region making it unsustainable for China-like countries to even have guts to go against Rules Based Order. Any make any offensive moves & threaten people of free world. If this is dubbed as Cold War 2.0, SO BE IT. An example should be made out of China in the coming months & years. Hope to see CCP Politburo members & PLA Generals in International Criminal Court.
UPDATE: Australia approaches UN over claims over South China Sea. In its petition to the UN, Australia rejects China’s “historical claims” in the SCS since they violate international law & the UN's Law of the Sea Australia is also the first country outside the South China Sea region to approach the UN on China’s claims. Read more here.
Must watch / read references:
1) Stratnewsglobal interview with Amb Navdeep Suri (ex Indian envoy to Australia)