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December
1962. The words of former Mongolian Prime Minister Yumjaagiin Tsedenbal during
a meeting with former Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai, “Sorry that China and India
had quarreled.” And added further, “Quarreling with India over an uninhabited
strip of land in the Himalayas would only force the Indians to turn to the
West, and that would not help China’s cause.” (Source: Chinafile.com)
Fast
forward to 2020. It seems, Zhou Enlai, who is also dubbed as Father of Chinese diplomacy,
has scripted China’s downfall. For that downfall to happen, they are doing a natural
climb up a vertical cliff. After the attack that killed 20 Indian Army
personnel, events have now pushed the CCP clearly off balance. With Prime
Minister Narendra Modi addressing troops from Union Territory of Ladakh, the
declaration of beginning of the end of China has happened. In other words,
they’ve also been pushed from the top of the cliff.
For
China, the were visible. Music was slowing down due to trade war with USA &
comes as no surprise. But to pick-up a fight with India in the middle of a
pandemic is a new low even according to Zhou Enlai’ism. As of today, China currently
stares at an irreversible combined defeat on 3 fronts. The end is near for: 1)
Political entity called People's Republic of China – Diplomatic defeat. 2) Armed
wing of CPC - People's Liberation Army – Military defeat. 3) Communist Party of
China – Political defeat.
In
this background, a sneak peek into some of those issues.
Diplomatic defeat
Zhou
Enlai’s wolf-warrior diplomacy has closed all the face-saving exit doors for
CCP. Implications is going to be rough & hard landing. Ranging from breakup
of what we now know as China - into multiple independent States & redrawing
of maps of North Asia. This has huge implications on Belt & Road initiative
trapped countries in Asia, Africa & Eastern Europe. This is going to have a
global impact on world economy with trillions of forex reserves going bust and
turning valueless in a matter of few weeks. Rumblings have already started over
USD 400Bn in Hong Kong.
Add
to the mix, a probable implosion of Chinese regime in full. And a rogue PLA
takeover, with weapons of mass destruction is the last thing World would want
right now. Powers that be, should disarm PLA immediately after defeat &
neutralize the nuclear threat in best possible way. We should also leave no
stone unturned to stop it from reaching a terrorist organization or a State
like Pakistan. This is going to be a diplomatic nightmare.
A
good start would be to recognize Taiwan & send back Communist Party
appointed Envoys across countries. Give land allotted to People’s Republic of
China missions to Republic of China. Let the flag of PRC be replaced by ROC.
Let the message go to the larger free & democratic world, that the GAME IS
OVER for PRC. First one, to happily follow would be Australia and many African
countries.
UNSC Role, Permanent Seat & representation in global bodies
UN
& UNSC should step-in immediately. UN should be reformed by replacing China
as a permanent member with India. Failing which, UN may go League of Nations’
way in due course. No, this is not due to non-support of India. But UN’s
credibility would be at stake in pages of history. By the time the PRC implodes,
China would neither have the moral high ground nor represent the billion people
nor have a great economy. Means, little justice to UNSC permanent seat anyways.
CCP
leadership should be prosecuted for crimes against humanity in International
Courts for unleashing pandemic across the world & killing thousands of
people while destroying world economy as we knew it. This might sound punitive
in nature, but does the world think, China has moral right to continue in UNSC
as permanent member? Just pure logic.
It
is a poignant fact that India with almost equal population and a democratic
country is not being represented in UNSC as a permanent member. It is one of
the many glaring failures of UN, as a world body. This should be cascaded on to
other world bodies too & PRC should see itself out of those as well.
From India’s point of view, until 1950 we never had a border with China. Tibet was a buffer. Tibet that should be talked about in future should include all three provinces of erstwhile Tibetan State. U-Tsang, Kham & Amdo. Yes, demography is changed, but over time people would turn inwards and find reason to justice. But we’re culturally linked till Mongolia.
We
should have all future conversations regarding Tibet, only with Tibetan
Government-in-Exile, that is in India currently. It should be formalized and
recognized when they reach Potala Palace (seat of Government of Tibet, when
Dalai Lama reaches Lhasa) in due course. In fact, this should be deliberated
with Tibetan Government in Exile as the successor to current political setup of
China.
Strange
fact, China calls Shimla Accord (1914) as illegal. Reason probably is,
Communists were not the signatory but, the agreement was with Republic of China
(Taiwan). So, whenever CCP claims something, pause & think. Some facts are
surely missing. Ask for documents. Chances are that they might not even have
it.
Not
just India, many other South East Asian countries have an interest in Tibet,
also called as water table of Asia, as major rivers of the region, have its
source there. Brahmaputra, Mekong & Indus. China already has project to
have diverted water from South to North. Plus the mindless construction of dams
across Mekong River has made water levels low in lower riparian states of South
East Asia leaving many areas drought and also affecting inland water transport.
Last year, water levels reached as low as 1.5 meters. Record low. Hope that
conveys the intensity.
Source: Wiki Commons
Myanmar,
Thailand, Cambodia, Laos & Vietnam can’t let China have a knife on their
head over this matter. This is like what Chinese have been doing in our own
Brahmaputra – where they are building dams to stop flow of water into India
from Tibet. Luckily, for us more water comes from within Indian borders than
from Tibet. Problem is when Chinese release water from the check dams without
intimation or stops sharing hydrological data. Hence, Tibet can’t be with a
country which gives zero value to rules-based world order & common sense,
basis which humanity operates.
Tibet
is sparsely populated & the challenging terrain. If need arises & at
the request of Tibetan people & Government, India should rise to the
occasion & provide security cover to our spiritual brothers across the
Himalayas. No, India doesn’t have to get the land or government there. Indian
Government policy is very clear in this regard. India is not in for greed of
land, which PM Modi himself made very clear. We have our cultural interests in
Tibet. Like, Kailash Manasarovar & cultural influence through Buddhism
extends till Mongolia.
Now
two questions might arise in minds of Western Countries: Can India be trusted
with this responsibility of protecting Tibet & waters? Yes. Tibetans are spiritually
& culturally our brothers. We shouldn’t repeat our monumental mistake of
1950s. India is surrounded by small nations like Bhutan & Maldives. Never
invaded them. In fact, India patrols Maldives’ EEZ in Indian Ocean. India has
free and open border with Nepal.
Can
India protect Tibet’s resources on humanitarian reasons? Again, an impartial
answer: YES. Purely based on our track record in adhering to Indus Water Treaty
(brokered by a World Bank in 1960) has lived through decades of conflict &
3 major wars with the very country we had signed the treaty with. India has
till date, not weaponized water. In fact, giving Pakistan more than what is
mentioned in the agreement. Such track record of commitments can be depended
upon.
Taiwan
Taiwan
should be recognized as successor State in case Chinese Communist Party rule
ends. An understanding with Taiwan should be reached in this regard, which
should end all China’s claims with regards to Tibet & Inner-Mongolia. There
should be no space for any political vacuum. Ultimate objective should be
democratic, peaceful & de-militarized China – within its rightful land.
This should solve Hong Kong issue as well. Let us be very clear, the war is
with Chinese Communist Party. Not the people of China, who have suffered to CCP
more than anyone in the world. In return, Taiwan should give up untenable
historical claims with various countries bordering it. Including Ladakh, Tibet
(per the original map of 1914. Parts of which are with other provinces.) and
handing over of inner-Mongolia to Mongolia. Any other dispute be only solved
thorough peaceful negotiations.
Military
Quick
facts about PLA: 1) PLA is armed wing of CCP. 2) PLA reports not to the people.
But to the CMC (Central Military Commission) – which is also headed by Xi. 3)
PLA has its own businesses. Ex-PLA members are part of such companies.
China’s
military power is not so powerful to damage us significantly, yet not to be
taken lightly. But the caution ends there. A cursory research & even
reading some factual replies to military related tweets from Global Times would
give you fair idea. PLA is done & dusted. And is on the verge of being
disbanded. As of today, PLA is behaving like Saddam’s army. CCP is turning out
to be a redux of Ba’ath Party. Iraq Government was in denial of Coalition
forces entering Iraq and even after crossing Euphrates river. PLA’s might is a
myth & stands busted. Strategy of PLA is very simple. Put overwhelming
numbers against PLA’s adversaries in first wave. If the adversary survives the
first wave and does calculated maneuvers, it won’t be tough for a
battle-hardened force like that of India’s to punish PLA. With not much troops
with PLA for back-up, they suffer significant loss as well.
The
political commissar system has destroyed physical courage in the PLA soldiers.
Else, by now, they won’t set out to start building a narrative of “we were
attacked” on CCTV for their population. They would have already attacked India
elsewhere, militarily. A military response is not coming from such a big force,
is a surprise for commoners. Not for those who give their deeds even a second
glance.
Forget
US, Australia, Japan, India & Russia. The socio-economic reasons behind
every soldier of PLA would make one rate other smaller armies better. For
example, PLA has 2million troops. And many more in reserve. Even Myanmar, Laos
& Vietnam have a combined troop strength of 1.5 million. That too, fully
ready for combat in jungles & is as much battle-hardened as PLA. With some
support from QUAD, PLA would be forced to fight another front in jungles of
these countries, from high altitude regions of Tibet. This is just land.
Situation at sea is even a bigger disadvantage for China. Imagine the theater
commander’s nightmares.
China
would not get support from North Korea and Pakistan to help them with India
& Russia, in case they form an alliance against PLA, they are wrong. North
Korea & Pakistan would already switch sides or cease to exist or get busy
with their own troubles, when China requires their help most. With the
movements happening in SCS & Indo-Pacific, with almost all affected countries
contributing resources, lacs of troops from friendly countries are ready to
take PLA head on. PLA would end up spreading thin across the country. Forget
Tibet, would they even be able to defend Guangzhou & Hainan, when push
comes to shove? Who would police Xinjiang Uyghur camps? With the current
socio-economic situation & past sins of CCP, will their population support
CCP’s efforts?
With
majority of troops being young troopers of “single child policy” generation, it
is in the interest of China’s future that PLA be disbanded. These young
troopers are innocent & joined PLA either forcefully or joined to get a
college fee waiver. Hence be vetted & sent to their families (except
notorious ones). PLA should be downsized to less than 10 personnel / million
people. Only police & civil defence should be allowed. For internal
troubles. All other arms – PLAF, PLAN, PLARF, PAPF etc, should cease to exist
as well. Including external intelligence agencies operating within Ministry of
State Security. With Russia, Taiwan & QUAD turning guarantors of peace &
sovereignty of borders, why would China require anything beyond border patrols?
Political
China
has started a victim narrative through CCTV by saying India crossed LAC and
captured land. China here forgets that it is in occupied land post-1962 war &
has zero respect for India’s sovereignty in other part of India’s Union
Territory of Ladakh – by operating CPEC through Pakistan Occupied Ladakh. But
treats even the slightest disagreement, as an insult.
Recently
discovered that China doesn’t have a President and that there is only General
Secretary of Communist Party of China & Chairman of Central Military Commission.
Even Xi wants him to be addressed as Chairman Xi and not as President Xi. Why
is this information important? Just to point out that China has head of Party
and Military. No Head of State per se. Party has the country. Country doesn’t
have the government. Subtle, yet significant.
Pattern
to behavior. CCP operates based on collective bullying & comparing with
others. Like, “Everyone listens to me, why are you not listening?” is the
standard syntax used for almost everything. This is quite clear in the mindset
of ‘wolf-warrior’ diplomats too. Era of expansion through collective bullying
is OVER. So, when the imminent overthrow / replacement of Xi Jinping happens,
the fall of CCP should be completed too. Identify key people of CCP at village
level.
World
should not limit to encouraging a regime change with another authoritarian in
Beijing. Present with an alternative for the people of China (excluding Tibet,
Inner-Mongolia & Xinjiang) & they’d prefer to be part of democratic
society. Surrounded by democracies like India, South Korea, Japan, Australia
& Mongolia, this would rather be quick.
The
Chinese judicial system should be scrapped as well. It has a 99% conviction
rate. Imagine, “Conviction is the norm, acquittal is an exception”. All symbols
of Communism would vanish over time. A free democratic society would be
tolerant to various practices like Feng Shui, Falun Gong, Tai Chi etc. A new democratic
constitution, with strong affirmation of local bodies, reflecting the
aspirations of a Chinese people is the way forward.
Last but not the least, economic costs might be imposed.
Economic costs
A
blanket ban on Renminbi trade outside China. Through SWIFT / other mechanisms. Seize
the assets of CCP, CCP members, CCP owned companies within & outside China.
Including ships & other maritime assets.
An
investigation into all projects by CCP under BRI & CPEC. Any entity,
company that is violating local laws & sovereignty in countries they
operate be boldly acted upon & prosecuted without fear of repercussions /
fear.
Those
who join the coalition now, to teach Chinese Communist Party a lesson, should
be given an open offer: All overpriced loans would be renegotiated with World
Bank as mediator. All those unnecessary projects would be scrapped right away,
freeing them of political compulsions. Then, those forcefully taken over by
China in various countries should be returned immediately with financial loss adjusted
against auction of seized assets of CCP / PLA. Remaining be given to Chinese
people. This will open flood gates and lots of people would turn against CCP –
within & outside China. Repatriations should also be paid to countries
affected very badly by pandemic.
Overall,
we are in very interesting time which would be defined as a turning point in
world history. Especially that of Asia, China & India. It is up to the
people in power corridors to decide the exact course of action.
Note:
This piece was first published on The Daily Guardian on 14th July 2020. Web version can be accessed here. Epaper of print version can be accessed on Page 6 of the link here.